| Automobile-motorcycle accident is an important form in traffic accidents. It often causes heavy casualties and great losses of property, because the bikers are always in a vulnerable position. In developed countries, motorcycle-accident accounting for less 5% proportion causes casualties accounting for 30% - 40% in all traffic accidents. In developing countries, due to the characteristics of fast, flexible, lightweight and cheaper prices, motorcycles have become the preferred transport tools in some social strata. The resulting traffic accidents have increased dramatically. The statistics in 2006 show that 100036 motorcycle-accidents occurred, 25128 persons were killed, 152966 persons were injured and 113.3 million RMB lost in these accidents all over the country. They respectively account for 26.41% of gross of traffic accidents, 28.09% of gross of deaths, 35.48% of gross of injured persons and 7.61% of gross of property lost.Motorcycle has lower safety performance than other vehicles. Because of its small size, fast speed, difficult to identify and poor driving stability, motorcycle is easier to take place accident than cars. Because the body of bikers has no protection, the rate of casualties is very high if any accident has happened. Determining the crash speed of vehicle is not only one of the main tasks of Traffic Accident Reconstruction, but also the premise and basis of determining responsibility.Based on the research of practical problems encountered, status quo and demand in vehicular velocity estimation of vehicle-motorcycle crash, and the results of vehicle-traffic safety lab in Jilin University, this paper mainly accomplished the work below:The characteristics and causes leading to a vehicle-motorcycle crash accident are analyzed in this paper. Ten causes and three characteristics, including high rate of accidents, injuries and handling difficult, are got. Then the paper introduces the main types of motorcycle accidents, as well as the influences of the vehicle shape on motorcycle accident. Finally the paper investigates the main methods at home and overseas in vehicular velocity estimation of vehicle-motorcycle accident, and analyzes their limitations. Vehicular velocity estimation models with high accuracy and practicality are established based on the real accident data, which is the goal of this paper. These accident data are obtained from some complete cases of vehicle-traffic safety lab in Jilin University since 2000.Some models are established about the relation of road surface slide mark–collision speed and throwing distance–collision speed of biker or motorcycle in this paper. And this paper deduces a relatively complete physical theoretical formula, which makes up the shortcomings of lower accuracy and oversize speed estimate scope in particle kinematics model. Then the actual accident data are used to fit the parameters in the simplified formula. Finally some practical models are got. Coefficient of sample determination and the discrete level of scatter regression curve are used to validate the accuracy and precision of those models. Dummy collision test ground of vehicle-motorcycle is simulated by PC-Crash. Compared with the overseas test data and models, the paper verified the validity and accuracy of the simulation model.Owing to using different vehicular velocity estimation models have different estimate values, the paper applied those models into an integrated model, and studied the weight of each sub-model. Two typical accident cases are reconstructed with the models which are founded in this paper.Although the models are based on the data of low angle between motorcycle and automobile, they are also the same with the situation that motorcycle or biker is thrown out in motorcycle accidents. The research will improve the study on vehicular velocity estimation in vehicle-motorcycle crash. It also has some practical significance on road traffic accidents.
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