Hongyang Reservoir Dam Slope Stable Risk Analsis

regardless of is the design, the construction or emergency case processing, the risk analysis is a question which the engineers and technicians frequently meets, has the stronger practical significance. At the same time, the recent country also starts to take this aspect the research, the scholars with from the different angle, used the different method to carry on to the risk analyzes and has obtained the certain result. This article based on the Guangdong Province Haifeng County Hongyang reservoir project reality, the utilization theory of probability, the reliable mathematics, the hydraulics, the hydrology, soil mechanics and so on the related discipline theory, considered each kind of accident affects the factor not the determinism, to the earth dam establishment risk model, and using the Monte carlo method analog computation dam slope accident probability, simultaneously acts according to the domestic and foreign risks standard and the appraisal research results, discusses the Hongyang reservoir dam to burst to the downriver question and so on influence and risk standard, main content:1st, under the consideration different factor condition establishes the earth dam slope to lose the steady risk model;2nd, causes not the determinism using the Monte carlo method simulation different parameter, the computation dam slope accident probability; 3rd, computation slope dam aspect and so on flood parameter and to economy, life, environment,society affects;3rd, carries on the discussion to the dam risk standard,4, unifies the red positive reservoir project to be actual to this dam slope loses the steady risk to carry on the discussion.