Reservoir Flood Control Operation Of Multi-target Risk Analysis Model And Applied Research

Water is the material basis of human beings' survival and social and economic development and it is important natural resource that can't be replaced. With economic and social development and with municipal process quickening, people have higher demand for water quantity and water quality. But fresh water that can be used is limited. So scarce water not only restricts economic and social development but also results in continuous deterioration of water environment. As reservoir is one of important hydraulic project, study on the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention and utilizable benefit is important and has theoretical and practical meaning.In this paper, research situation of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention at home and at abroad is analyzed and the shortcomings of risk analysis of flood-prevention at present are pointed out. On the basis of concept of risk and risk analysis, the reservoir's risk analysis method and putting procedure into practice are presented. The model of risk analysis and the model of utilizable benefit for reservoir operation are established. At last, risk and utilizable benefit are studied about the different schema of water level of luhun reservoir in flood period and suggestion of water level in flood period is presented from the viewpoint of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. The concrete contents are as follows:(1) Research situation of the reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention at home and at abroad is summarized on the basis of consulting some literatures. The shortcomings of the reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention at present and the working pivots in later work are pointed out.(2) Concept of the reservoir's risk and risk analysis of flood-prevention are illuminated. Criticized problem of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention, From concept of risk and risk analysis, the object of risk analysis is defined and the reservoir's risk analysis method and putting procedure into practice including risk identifies, risk estimate, risk evaluation, risk decision are put forward.(3) The reservoir's risk analytic technology of flood-prevention is researched and Monte-Carlo imitative technique is analyzed. Imitative procedure of Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor risk analysis is planned in light of specialty of reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. Imitative formula of major factor about reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention are given and Imitative procedure are designed. Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor risk analysis technique and method arebrought forward.(4) Risk objective of reservoir flood operation are certained and the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention are defined. So the conclusion that flood- typical choice, flood-forecast error, flood-operation delay are major risk factor are decided. Method of risk estimate about major risk factor are pointed out and formula and imitative procedure of major risk factor are designed.(5) Based on Dynamic programming principle, Dynamic programming model for reservoir utilizable benefit is established. The put value method is introduced, which realize relation between water level, capacity of reservoir and discharge of reservoir in computer. The method is proved effective by studied luhun reservoir.(6) Risk of the flood-prevention is analyzed according to the luhun reservoir of actual and Imitative procedure of Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor is drewed up using Visual Basic. A lot of calculation of objective flood-prevention and utilizable are imitated for different water level in flood period used datum of luhun reservoir actual flood, reservoir characteristic, flood forecast and reservoir flood-prevention, as a result, different risk probability of flood-prevention and risk benefit are acquired in the every kind of condition. After all-round analyzing the results, suggestion of 316.5 water level in flood period for lunhun reservoir is presented from the viewpoint of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. Risk prob...