Research On Traffic Demand Forecasting Model Of Small & Middle City

The forecasting of urban traffic demand, which is an important way to determine the overall arrangement capacity, the heading of main roads of urban transportation network, is the base of urban traffic plan, the model and precision level of arithmetic not only determine whether the network plan is reasonable and scientifically ,,but also play an role in the economical development of the future society and the improvement of living condition. How to predict the traffic demand scientifically and impersonally is a topic we have to face together in the traffic plan. Based on the systemic analysis of urban traffic demanding prediction methods, this paper aim at the shortcomings of "the four phases" and study the prediction model of urban traffic programming all sided. The urban land use is the source of urban traffic demand. Generally speaking, the traffic demand varies according to the different layout, the kind and intensity of land use. The model which can reflect the close relationship between the land use and the traffic creation will simplify the process of the traffic creation prediction as well as the reliability of the experimental result. It is said that there is close relationship between the way of outgoing and the distance of outgoing. When the distance is short, people will go out on foot. With the distance increasing, the ratio of mechanization of outgoing will rise, and vice versa. According to this theory, this paper calculates the prediction of traffic distribution and assignment with the aid of TRANSTAR, TRANSCAD. In order to confirm the traffic plan and traffic demand model and arithmetic, the cases of the city of bao ying is cited.