Analysis Of The Urban Rail Transit Passenger Traffic Volume Forecast

Along with the economical development and the lives of the people level unceasing enhancement, the city scale expands, the urban population, the vehicle, the non-motor vehicle capacity unceasingly grows suddenly as well as the city land uses change, the municipal transportation to support stops up worsens with the urban environment has become the universal social question. However only depends on the sole ground transportation way to be unable fundamentally to solve the municipal transportation and it's the environment question, constructs and develops the great transportation amount, high speed, the convenient city urban rail transit, establishes the city synthesis transportation network system, has become now the municipal transportation development necessity.In recent years, although our country also sped up has constructed the city urban rail transit system the step, but city urban rail transit in our country new things, also did not have the mature theory is the instruction, also did not have the system the experience to be possible to follow. The city urban rail transit passenger flow forecast work is the earlier period research work key, is has the significance extremely regarding this question discussion the research work.The present paper acts according to our country city urban rail transit passenger flow forecast work the reality, in analyzes its characteristic, in the summary traffic forecast general method foundation, thought the urban rail transit the passenger flow forecast should take the traditional four terrace works as the foundation, based on the urban rail transit passenger flow forecast work actual characteristic, performs to it to transform, the revision, nimbly performs to change. By both adoptions urban rail transit passenger flow forecast work need, and can maximum limit use also has the material is the goal. This article in to the existing forecast method research foundation in, unifies the author once has been engaged in the Xi'an city fast urban rail transit wire plan scientific research item research and the practice utilization system analysis thinking method, has discussed the city urban rail transit passenger flow forecast work practical application question, discussed using the resources environment supporting capacity analysis thought under the city resources environment limiting condition, city system saturated condition estimate question. Through to goes on a journey personally the choice decision-making analysis, established went on a journey the production non-linearity forecast model. Used between the plot the correlational dependence to carry on the revision to the gravitational model distribution distribution result. Through to between each kind of transportation way competition relations recognizing, discussed based on the competition strategy transportation way division method. The application carries on the track trafficdistribution based on the strategy competition relations union way division------trafficdistribution model. Discussed based on the strategy competition relations union waydivision------traffic distribution model basic supposition establishment as well asregarding the generalized public transportation network description, line performance function choice, generalized expense function actual problem and so on establishment.