The Study Of Passenger Flow Volume Forecasting And Transportation Organization Scheme In Urban Rail Transit

Currently facilities of rapid rail transit are being built or to be built in many cities all over our country. The scale of the rapid railway traffic lines is decided by the forecast of the passenger flow. The forecast of the passenger flow is the basement of the project feasibility, the forecast of the passenger flow credibility is one of the questions paid attention to by the government. As a result ,urban rail transit plan, especial the forecast of the railway traffic passenger flow is very important to guarantee the science, rationality, feasibility of the railway traffic construction.The paper states the development actuality of the urban railway traffic, then classifies the urban railway traffic, introduces the advantage of the urban railway traffic, analyses the form mechanism of the passenger flow.The paper brings forward the four—stage forecast model that is improved aiming at the former four—stage forecast model and develops the former four—stage forecast model., carrying on the transportation production according to the journey goal, establishing the different model of the inner area and area-to-area journey, explaining the relation of the rail transit with other taffic means in the whole passenger system. And it analyses the shortage of the traditional Logit model, bringing forward the threshold analysis. Also it analyses the sensitivity of the passenger flow from the urban rail transit.The paper brings forward the scheme of the transportation organization aiming at the imbalance of the passenger flow after the analysis of the railway traffic passenger flow in the characteristic of the time, space distribution.