Water transportation is a risky industry. Safety should always be top priority. With the economic development of the Bohai Sea region, port cluster in the Bohai Sea area has developed very fast in recent years. Port capacity and traffic in the Bohai Sea have increased drastically. The sharp increased traffic density and a large quantities of ships have made the traffic situation more complicated. The underway ships often meet with great current and rough sea and sometimes the watch keeper makes the wrong judgment of the geography of the water, this will endanger the ships at sea.Sailing in the Bohai Sea, the different vessels in different regions has not the same degree of safety. The security in the relatively poor security region will be a key factor in the safety level of the entire voyage,which is considered as critical regions.Through the comprehensive analysis of geographical, meteorological and hydrological, ship traffic, navigation density characteristics in the Bohai Sea aero, nine key areas was established in Bohai Sea voyage.In order to know the security situation well, based on the analysis of the marine environment of the Bohai Bay and the relevant factors affecting the safety of navigation. In reference with the shipping safety science, marine traffic engineering theory and the research results and practical experience of the experts and scholars in maritime industry, marine and environmental factors affecting the safe navigation of ships were analyzed and summarized. And the comprehensive evaluation index system with three floors covering maneuverability and stability and instrumentation and so on was established after careful screening evaluation index. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to determine the weight of each index found the whitening weight function of the various indicators based on the impact of the mechanism, The quantitative evaluation model clustering analysis is established to assess the safety of ship navigation in the Bohai area by the gray system theory. In the end I do some experiments to test correctness and sensitivity of the model, the conclusion is the modle is reliable and sensitive.The establishment of the model will provide the method and basis for judging the safety degree of navigation and also provide a scientific basis and reference for decision making for the managers and masters of shipping companies to strengthen the safety management. It surely has some practical value.Finally, this paper puts forward ship safety management proposals in view of the actual situation of production and shipping in the Bohai Sea. |