| With the development of Chinese economy and the continuous rising of the people's living standard,the volumes of car as a kind of means of transportation owed by the rapid increase caused increasing the number of the accidents,which has been focused on by people increasingly.Collision speed confirmation is the significant evidence of accident liability judgement for traffic polices in the traffic accident.However,the speed error is usually given based on the experts'advices,but not the scientific error analysis methods,which can not define the transitive relation between the result and parameters that are involved.Therefor,the precisioin of speed estimation improved is obviously significative.Relying on automotive engineering college of Wuhan University of Technology and Wuhan Judicial qualification lecels,based on building the speed models of traffic accident reconstructions, the thesis has studied as the follow:1) The principle and assessment methodologies of uncertainty theoy has been studied,the evaluation processes and the parameters involved have been enunciated,which has got ready for the subsequent speed estimation.2) The uncertainty theory has been analysed in the traffic accident reconstructions;the comprehensive analysis process of mathematical models and typical methods of speed estimation have been given,and the quantitative criteria and transitive relation have been offered.3) Whether the numeric area of traditional theory speed estimation checked by MATLAB is right or not.4) The kinematic models and impact models have been analysed by PC-Crash, the target which is to check the result consistency of above two analysis models,and demonstrate the feasibility or uniqueness of the application of uncertainty theory in the traffic accident reconstructions.5) A comprehensive analysis process of speed estimation has been built.In addition, the cases of typical accidents forms have been given to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of above process.
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