Grey Theory Model Of Emergy Ecological Footprint And Its Application

Sustainable development has received extensive attention since it was advanced. Two widely used evaluation methods have been proposed in the twentieth century:ecological footprint method and emergy analysis method. Based on these two methods, the ecologi-cal footprint method based on emergy analysis theory has been proposed by Zhao Sheng which combined ecological footprint with emergy analysis.This thesis combines ecological footprint, emergy analysis with grey system theory. Grey prediction model and grey relational analysis have been used into the study of sus-tainable development. Grey prediction model is used to predict the emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity in order to study the environment develop trend of an area in the following years. Grey relational degree is used to analysis the main influence factor of ecological footprint. In this thesis, the emergy ecological footprint proposed by Zhao Sheng is modified in order to obtain a new calculation model which can give a more realistic picture of the environment situation. Using this new model, the emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity of Ningxia is calculated from 1998 to 2007. The results show that the per capita emergy ecological footprint of Ningxia increases with years from 5.4091hm2 in 1998 to 10.3564hm2 in 2007, the per capita emergy ecological capacity decreases with years from 1.0890hm2 in 1998 to 0.9575hm2 in 2007. The ecological deficit increases with years from 4.3201hm2 in 1998 to 9.3989hm2 in 2007.The grey relational analysis results of emergy ecological footprint from the year 2003 to 2007 show that the increase of energy footprint is the main reason which leads to the largely increase of emergy ecological footprint of Ningxia. The second reason is the consume of animal products, and the third reason is the consume of water and water products. The consume of the agricultural products is the last one.Finally, the GM(1,1)model is established using the datas from the year 2003 to 2007, and the following 8 years's emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity of Ningxia are predicted. The predict results show that the ecological deficit keeps on increasing, the unsustainable situation will be aggravated.