| Water is an important natural resource and a fundamental guarantee for the survival and development of human society.Shanxi Province is located in the west of north China.Its water resources always have the problem of insufficient amount and unequal distribution.With the development of social economy,not only the shortage of water resources is becoming more and more serious,but also the deterioration of water quality is becoming more and more prominent.Therefore,it is particularly important to fully understand the status of water resources utilization in Shanxi Province,and to clarify the spatial and temporal characteristics of water volume and water quality,so as to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of water resources management policies and measures in Shanxi Province.Based on the theory of water ecological footprint,the ecological footprint of water volume and water quality was calculated and analyzed in Shanxi Province.The calculation result of water footprint was taken as the data base of the calculation of water volume ecological footprint,the virtual water consumption was included in the calculation of water ecological footprint.And the results of agricultural non-point source pollution were incorporated into the calculation of water quality ecological footprint.Based on the indexes of water resource ecological deficit,water ecological footprint depth and water ecological footprint size,the water volume and water quality ecological footprint was evaluated,the spatial and temporal characteristics of water ecological footprint were comprehensively analyzed based on the flow and the stock of water resources in Shanxi Province.The correlation between the change of water ecological footprint and population and economic factors,and predicts its development trend was discussed.The results show that:(1)From 2007 to 2016,the water footprint of Shanxi Province showed an overall upward trend.The difference between the 11 administrative regions was significant,the highest in Yuncheng and the lowest in Yangquan.The average of water footprint per capita for 10 years is 731.22 m~3.The structure of water footprint in Shanxi Province is relatively stable,and the increase of water footprint mainly comes from the increase of agricultural water consumption.Over the past 10 years,a high water resources self-sufficiency rate was maintained in Shanxi Province with an average of 98.97%.During the study period,the economic benefit of water footprint increased from 28.13 to 43.23.From 2007 to 2011 was a period of rapid rise,while the change from 2011 to 2016 was not significant,and the utilization efficiency of water resources was stable.The water resources stress index of rose from 1.96 in 2007 to 2.24 in 2016.The water resources stress index of each administrative region was more than 1 in the past 10 years.(2)From 2007 to 2016,the average water volume ecological footprint of Shanxi Province was 43.20 million hm~2,showing a trend of slow increase on the whole.Among the11 administrative regions,the highest value always appeared in Yuncheng and the lowest value appeared in Yangquan over the years all.The average water volume ecological footprint per capita over the 10-year was 1.209 hm~2.The highest was 1.373 hm~2in 2014,and the lowest was 0.993 hm~2in 2007.From 2007 to 2016,the utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province and 11 administrative regions were in deficit.The water ecological deficit between2007 and 2014 showed a trend of gradual increase,while it declined slowly between 2014 and2016.The amount of water resources cannot meet the demand,the ecological footprint size of water volume in shanxi is equal to the ecological carrying capacity of water resources,and the flow of water resources is entirely occupied.The water volume ecological footprint depth remained at a relatively stable and high level in the 10 years,with an average value of 28.37.During the study period,the average carrying capacity of water resources in each administrative region of Shanxi Province was 1.523 million hm~2with the whole relatively stable,however the regional differences are obvious.The highest value was 1.919 million hm~2in 2016,and the lowest value was 1.227 million hm~2in 2009.The average per capita ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Shanxi during the past 10 years was 0.043hm~2.It reflects the basic characteristics of water shortage in Shanxi Province.(3)From 2007 to 2016,the average annual emissions of COD,TN and TP from agricultural non-point sources in Shanxi were respectively 740,900 tons,92,500 tons and9,500 tons.Among the four calculated accounts,the emissions from aquaculture and crop farming are small,and the pollutant emissions mainly come from rural sewage account and animal husbandry account.Among the 11 administrative regions,the maximum COD,TN and TP emissions over the years occurred in Yuncheng,and the lowest value occurred in Yangquan.The average of the total equivalent pollution load in Shanxi Province from 2007 to2016 was 88.588 billion m~3.The contribution of agricultural non-point source pollution from large to small is:TN>TP>COD.The annual average equivalent pollution load ratio of 11administrative regions is successively from large to small:yuncheng>Lvliang>Linfen>Jinzhong>Changzhi>Xinzhou>Datong>Jincheng>Shuozhou>Taiyuan>Yangquan.The equivalent pollution load of the rural sewage account decreased,while the other three accounts have the varying degree increases.(4)The water quality ecological footprint in Shanxi continued to rise from 2007 to 2011,and slowly declined from 2011 to 2016.The water quality ecological footprint in 2016 was16.443 million hm~2.Over the past 10 years,the proportion of water quality ecological footprint of agricultural non-point sources pollution has been increasing.During the study period,the utilization of water quality resources in Shanxi Province was in deficit,and the water resources could not meet the demand of absorbing water pollutants.The ecological footprint size of water quality is also equal to the carrying capacity of water resources.The overall performance of water quality footprint depth was stable,with an average value of10.51.(5)The results of Pearson correlation analysis between water volume and quality ecological footprint with population and economic development showed that:The four economic indexes showed positive correlation with the water volume and quality ecological footprint in Shanxi Province.And there was a negative correlation between the water volume and quality ecological footprint with rural population,the correlation coefficients were-0.935and-0.734,respectively.Urban population and total population are positively correlated with water volume and quality ecological footprint.(6)ARIMA(1,2,3)models were used to predict the development trend of water volume and quality ecological footprint.The results showed that the water volume ecological footprint will show a trend of first rising and then falling from 2016,with the predicted value rising to 49.57 million hm~2in 2017,and a trend of continuous decline from 2017 to 2021,with the predicted value of 42.0447 million hm~2in 2021.The water quality ecological footprint has been declining since 2016,and the predicted value will drop to 8.818 million hm~2in 2021.Finally,based on the calculation and analysis results of the above data,combined with the current situation of water resources utilization in Shanxi Province,some Suggestions on the sustainable utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province are put forward from the two aspects of water quantity and water quality.Water volume management suggestion mainly includes:improving the utilization efficiency of agricultural and industrial water resources;Increasing virtual water trade;Improve people's awareness of water conservation and protection;strengthen water conservancy projects and trans-basin water diversion.Water quality management suggestion mainly includes:strengthening rural sewage control;Centralized sewage treatment for animal husbandry and crop farming;The scientific management of pesticide and fertilizer application amount;strengthening industrial sewage discharge management and reducing urban sewage discharge. |
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