The Study On Beijing, Tianjin And Hebei Urban Simulation Model Base On MODIS Remote Sensing Image And Cellular Automata

City regionalization and regional urbanization has become a significant feature of current urban development. In the united states,has formed five urban agglomeration(the U.S. northeastern atlantic coast urban agglomeration ,the Great Lakes urban agglomeration and so on),which impact the world economic pattern. In China, Peral River Delta,Yangtze River Delta and the urban agglomeration of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei has become the important unit of China's participation in global competition.The"Eleventh Five-Year Plan"has pointed out that the urban agglomeration development is the main form of pushing forward the urbanization.under the new economic circumstances,the world's economic center is shifting to the Asia-Pacific region, the layout of domestic productivity goes from south to north. The development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei urban agglomeration is speeding up. The urban agglomeration spatial pattern is evoluting fast, there is an urgent need to grasp the evolution regularity, and guide the city rational growth by using the policy and planning decision-making. To this end, in a variety of city development vision, the analysis and assessment of the development pattern and direction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has become a much-needed issue.Purpose of this study is to establishing a constrained cellular automata model tosimulate spatial process of urban growth ,explore the variety of spatial pattern of urban agglomeration and provide the dicision support of relevent policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration for the future. This model is basis of the theory of urban spatial structure and urban simulation method, in addition, it uses the newest information technology of geographic information system and remote sensing. In technology, firstly, Calculating the spatial variate by using Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing; Then establishing the cellular automata model and ultimately programing to complete the entire simulate process based on C# and ArcEngine. In theory, cellular autmata model attempts to highlight the micro-mechanism of the evolution of the urban agglomeration spatial structure. In this study, many factors,includeing neighborhooh factor,land condition, transport network fanctor,land zoning, the impact of macroeconomic and random factor, are considered into the urban simulation model, then calibrating the model by using the multivariable logistic regression method. On the basis of this model, we can simulate the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region spatial pattern in the different context of macroeconomic policies. The simulation results will provide theoretical guidance and support for the choice of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration future development direction.