The Evolution Study On The Water Resources Carrying Capacity In The Karst Region

Although the rainfall are many in the karst area, but because the space and time distribution is uneven, in addition to the special hydrology geology structure under the pad surface, it is difficulty for people to exploit and use the water resources. Added the recent years, the karst area industry and agriculture rapid develope, all these posed the enormous threat to the local ecological environment security and the social economy sustainable development. Because the water resources are the most main limit factor of the social economy and the ecosystem evolution develop in karst area and is the bridge and link of the relation economic problem and the ecological environment question. Therefore the guiding ideology of this article is the modern system theory, the karst basin hydrology landform system proposed by Yang Ming'de, Liang Hong et al. And the sustainable development theory, aim for researching the correlation of these, discussing the environment rule of the water resources carrying capacity. It is the reality guiding sense for the forecast of the water resources demand and the formulation of the economical, social and the environment policy in the karst area.This article has consulted the massive domestic and foreign literature of water resources carrying capacity and water resources evolution, and brings forward the question of water resources carrying capacity evolution in the karst area. The main research content is as follows:1. Identify the major factors of affecting the evolution of karst water capacity. Obtaining the qualitative factors,and achieve the conversion from qualitative to quantitative by the theory of quantification, and in combination with other quantitative factors. Then use SPSSto analyse its correlation and variance. In order to find the influence which the factor affect the water resources carrying capacity, eventually form the main factors for water resources carrying capacity of karst area.2. First the level of productivity determines the karst water resources carrying capacity, and technology is the primary productivity, is an important factor of promoting the productivity progress, which affects not only the booming population, socio-economic development but will also determine the exploitation and use of water resources. Therefore, we analysis influence which technology effect karst water resources carrying capacity evolvement from three aspects: the change of population, the changes of economy and industry, the utilization of karst water resources.3. We use the dissipative structure theory, synergy and catastrophe theory to analyse water resources carrying capacity evolution in karst area. Water resources carrying capacity will be divided into three stages: preliminary stage, dissipation stage, harmonious growth stage and steadily growth stage. There is the transition in the dissipation and harmonious growth stage, then analyzed using logistic curve model. Using entropy, gray system theory and coordination theory, we identify the direction of water resources carrying capacity evolution. The result is that the order of the water resources carrying capacity system gradually increase, and the state system in a virtuous circle but abated in the process. But as a whole the water resources can not meet the needs of the natural and socio-economic development. Karst water resources carrying capacity is in the harmonious growth stage.4. In view of the range of issues raised above, we put the optimization method of the karst water resources carrying capacity. In order to provides a theoretical basis and technological support for the improvement of water resources carrying capacity in karst region in current or future.