The Studys On Evaluation And Forecast Of Groundwater Reasources In Jiansanjiang Land Reclamation Area

Jiansanjiang area is located in the northeast of Heilongjiang province; it is a part ofSanjiang plain and the important production base of commodity grain of china. This areapossesses fifteen nationalized farms, and the groundwater resources are the main source ofirrigation, the degree of groundwater development is very high in this area. Recently, with theincrease of grain areas, people exploited the groundwater without control, the marsh wasdecreasing by yearly, the groundwater depth descended gradually, more and moremotor-pumped well can not work, it lead to the descent of production of paddy and the seriouslose in agricultural economics.Therefore, being aimed at current situation of the groundwater in reclamation area, theauthor went deeply into the inquiry and collect a large amount of information and data, such asmeteorological phenomena, hydrogeololgy, hydrology etc, then studied to whose analysis,based on which author has built various groundwater resources valuation and forecastingmathematic model. The author adopted the water balance method to calculate groundwaterresources quantity and the methods of mean distribution of well and groundwater exploitingcoefficients to ascertain the permissible quantity of exploitation. Then, the degree of thepermissible quantity of exploitation was able to ensured also be analyzed. The method ofgroundwater exploiting modulus were adopted to calculate the permissible quantity ofexploitation in each farm, meanwhile, comparing the quantity with the real water consumption in2006 to analyze the current situation and exploiting potentiality of the groundwater. Themethods of improved Gray conjunction analysis and Matter-Element and Extension and fuzzycomprebensive appraisal were adopted to estimate the quality of the groundwater, the finalyconclusion was based on the analysis about the three results. In order to hold the dynamical lawof groundwater, the method of artificial neural nets and analysis of time series were adopted tobuild mathmatical model of Groundwater and forecast the developing trend in the following twoyears.Based on the above-mentioned processes, the conclusion is that there was very serious unbalance question in the process of exploiting and utilizing of groundwater, though thegroundwater recharge can suffice the reasonable exploiting. For example, the groundwaterresources were exploited without control in some farm, at the same time, the groundwaterresources were not utilized sufficiently in some other farms which held rich water resources. Themain reason result in this result is that the area of paddy field are increasing recently, reach 95%of the total crop area, and some other farms are reverse, the area of glebe reach 90% of the totalcrop area. The groundwater is the main source for irrigation, which bring on the unbalancephase. With the blindly increasing of exploited quantity of groundwater, the depth ofgroundwater are becoming lower and lower and the water quality also be influenced. In view ofthe consequence, the author gave some advise about the development and utilization ofgroundwater and development of paddy field, the advise is that developing the farming withsaving water; exploiting the groundwater reasonable; heading off the surface water actively;developing the irrigation with the potamic water and using the water of transit, which can supplythe scientific basis to the reasonabl exploiting of groundwater and realization of the sustainableuse and development of the groundwater, then, bring the greater social and economic benefitsfor the area.