The Research Of Land Use Change Base On GIS And CA Model

In the whole world environmental variation research, the land use/cover change (LUCC) was more and more considered is a key and the urgent research topic, whether reasonable and the accurate imulation and forecast land use change the research core are partial. This article from studies the region the actual situation to embark, putting forward to use GIS means and CA(Cellular automata) model to imitate and predict a land use variety.The CA (Cellular automata) took one kind has the space and time dynamic characteristic the dynamic method, has the huge superiority in the city growth and the land use evolutions imulation aspect. Constructing the CA model is a textual point, this text difference carries on a model establishment with the ground with ground and agriculture to the construction, considering an agriculture to use the oneself condition, neighbor's condition, transportation condition that a ground of unit and construction use a ground of unit and control factor condition etc., making use of different behavior rule to imitate each kind of land to make use of variety respectively. GIS took one kind of spatial analysis the method and the tool, play the huge role in the CA model realization and the demonstration aspect.This text makes use of Shanshan county in Xinjiang land to make use of a data to carry on present condition analysis in 2005 first, analyzing the characteristics of the land use exploitation in the Shanshan county;Make use of alteration data in the land of 1993-2000, made use of the characteristics of variety to carry on to analyze further to the land of Shanshan county, find out the direction, range of characteristics and variety that the Shanshan county land use variety, for next step the establishment of the CA model laid foundation. Then choose the Shanshan county city and the district in the neighborhood as to test area, carry on the establishment and the realization of CA model.The experiment area is been a foundation data in 1990 by TM image;Use 2000 of experiment area TM image as the training data which trains model, carry on adjusting to try to the model;Use the satellite image of the resources No.2 data of 2005 as the examination data which examines model, carry on evaluation and examination to the model.Make use of model to imitate an experiment finally an area land use condition for 2010 years.