Research On The Gray Model Of Earthquake Disaster And Decision Making

With the development of Society and Economy, earthquake disasters will bring more and more severe losses for human beings. Therefore, studies on earthquake disasters and decisions have very important theory meaning and social economical effect.Firstly, the aftershock prediction for major-after shocks is studied. Natural Analogism Method, Time-Space Transfer Coefficient Method and judgement by the b-value of earthquake sequence are used to divide the types of earthquakes. Based on them, the Gray Modeling Methods are used to simulate the earthquake sequence, and the GM (1, 1) Model is established to predict aftershock. Moreover, posterior-varriance-test and grey relation analysis are studied. These methods are applied to simulate the earthquake sequence happened at Sumtra, Indonesia in Dec. 2004.Secondly, the methods to assess the disaster losses of earthquake are studied. The disasters of earthquake are classified and assessed by Grey Cluster Method and Grey Relation Analysis. The grey relationships between the disaster losses of earthquake and several factors are analyzed in order to quantify the qualitative analyses of economic losses using Seismosociology and explain the impact of Urbanization and Human Beings on the disaster losses of earthquake. Meantime, the total probability model and dynamic correct model are introduced. Many examples at China are used to test these methods since they need detailed and concrete data.Finally, after completing earthquake disasters assessment and determining the scale of aid, Analytic Hierarchy Process and are used to study the distribution of materials for disaster relief and re-building planning. Moreover, these methods are also applied to Bam earthquake at Iran in Dec. 2003.The results show that the above grey modeling methods are valuable to be researched and perfected at the fields of aftershock prediction, assessment for the disaster losses of earthquake and disaster relief decision,which can be applied on the scientifical decision by government.