Research On The Grey Decision-making Model And Its Application To The Yellow River Ice Disaster Risk Management

Grey decision-making is an important part of the grey system theory and modern decision science,the grey decision-making model and its application to the Yellow River ice disaster risk management are studied,main results are as follows:Firstly,the grey target decision-making method is studied.With regard to the decision problem with interval grey number information,the distance measure is defined which can be adjusted according to decision maker and the optimal objective weights are obtained by calculating a multi-objective nonlinear programming problem,then a grey target decision model with interval grey number is established.With regard to the decision problem with three-parameter interval grey number information,the nonlinear range transformation operator is constructed standard the decision information matrix and the distance measure and sorting method are defined similarly.In order to distinguish different projects effectively,the rewarding excellence and punishing inferior principle is used to construct comprehensive off-target distance,then a grey target decision model with three-parameter interval grey number is established.Secondly,the grey hybrid type decision-making method is studied.In view of hybrid grey multiple attribute decision making problems,in which the attribute value of alternatives are three-parameters interval grey number and fuzzy language,with regard to the information loss of mutual transformation between grey and fuzzy information,the S dimensional fuzzy spherical grey target and S dimensional hybrid spherical grey target are defined based on the"clutch" thought which is separating the different types of information in advance before they are assembled.The positive and negative clout is discussed and the rewarding good and punishing bad principle is used to construct the comprehensive off-target distance,then a hybrid grey target model with positive and negative clout based on "clutch" thought is set up.Thirdly,the grey risk type decision-making method is studied.With regard to risky multi-index decision-making problems,in which the index value of alternatives are three-parameter interval grey number and the index state probability is unknown,the concept of prospect entropy was defined,and a method to quantify the system uncertainty based on prospect entropy was presented,moreover,grey correlation analysis was utilized to construct the prospect value function and an optimization model was enacted,the optimizing solution can be determined via the comprehensive prospect value,then an approach based on prospect entropy is proposed.Finally,the above new models are applied to the classification management of theYellow River flood-fighting materials or the ice disaster risk management of the Ningxia and Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River,then,the rationality,scientificity and effectiveness of these models are tested through the results.