Analysis And Reasearch On LUCC And Its Driving Forces In Weibei Dry Highland Based On GIS

Land is the material basis of human survival and development. Land use/cover change is one of the key issues of global change and sustainable development. Take Chengcheng county located in Weibei dry highland as a case, this paper researched the features of land use/cover change and its driving mechanism. It can play a reference role on solving contradictions between the county's economic development and land use, sustainable land use and urban planning and construction, which have some theoretical significance.Based on land use status charts of Chengcheng county in 1999, 2003 and 2008, this paper analyzed land use change in support of GIS software, and calculated relevant landscape pattern index to analyze land use spatial pattern of the three years by Fragstats. Then combined with transfer matrix, the study adopted Markov model to predict land use change in the future. Finally, the research focused on cultivated land to discuss the driving forces of land use/cover change and proposed some suggestions to sustainable development of land. The results show that:(1) Comprehensive land use change rate is large in Chengcheng from 1999 to 2008; the area of cultivated land, construction and transportation land, water land and unused land show a trend of decline, while garden land, forest land and grass land all have some increase. In the land use of towns, Yaotou, Shanhua and Fengyuan's change rate is the largest, while Siqian and Zhuangtou's change rate is the least.(2) Diversity index, evenness index of the land in Chengcheng appear increasing trend from 1999 to 2008, while dominance index shows decline trend, it indicates that land in Chengcheng dominanted by one or several types of land is decreasing gradually, land structure is becoming uniformity and rationalization. The fragmentation index, apartness index and reciprocal of fractal dimension of cultivated land all appear increase trend, this have great connections with urbanization and conversion of farmland to forest. (3) From 2012 to 2028, the area of cultivated land, grass land and unused land in Chengcheng have keeping decreasing; garden land, forest land, construction and transportation land, water land have keeping increasing. The decrease or increase trend of various land declines gradually, this because with the lapse of time, land use structure are becoming rationalization, and land use type is compatible with social needs and economy structure.(4) The increase of population and economic volume are the main factors which affect total land use change, meanwhile they are the key driving forces of cultivated land. In addition, regional land use policy have significant effect on land use change.