Research On Evaluation And Promotion Path Of Agricultural High-quality Development Level In Xinjiang

Solving the problems of “agriculture,rural areas and farmers” has always been the top priority of the work of the Communist Party of China(CPC).Especially since the eighteen Party Congress,the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core has taken the opportunity to cope with the situation and put forward a series of major strategic initiatives for the new situation and new problems of the “agriculture,rural areas and farmers” work,successively proposed a series of major strategic measures such as supply-side structural reform in the agricultural sector and rural revitalization strategy,which clarified the direction of China’s agricultural development at present and in the future.As a major province of agriculture and animal husbandry in China,the development of agriculture is vital to Xinjiang’s economic construction and social stability.Since 2010,thanks to the strong leadership of the central and autonomous regions and the corresponding assistance of various provinces and cities,Xinjiang’s comprehensive agricultural production capacity and the ability to guarantee agricultural products have been significantly improved.The results of agricultural development have benefited the people more,and people’s well-being of all ethnic groups continues to improve.However,with the increasingly tight resource and environmental constraints and the further enhancement of the public’s awareness of the quality and safety of agricultural products,traditional agricultural development methods are facing severe challenges.Facing the new situation,Xinjiang urgently needs to re-examine the traditional agricultural development model and objectively evaluate the high-quality development of agriculture.which is not only meets the actual needs,but also of great significance for digging deep into the potential and new kinetic energy of agricultural development.This dissertation takes Xinjiang as an example,takes 2010-2020 as the research interval,based on the new development philosophy,system dynamics theory and other related theories,start with the connotation of agricultural high-quality development,starting from the connotation and characteristics of high-quality agricultural development,based on the actual situation of agricultural development,this dissertation constructs the evaluation index system of agricultural high-quality development level,and comprehensively using research methods such as entropy method,coupling coordination degree model,and obstacle degree model,comprehensively using the entropy method,the coupling coordination degree model and the obstacle degree model,a comprehensive analysis of a series of issues such as the level of high-quality agricultural development in Xinjiang and its restrictive factors.and through the establishment of a system dynamics model,simulation analysis of different development paths to explore the optimal path to improve the high-quality development level of Xinjiang’s agriculture,and then put forward corresponding policy recommendations accordingly.The main research work and conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:1.Based on the new development philosophy and the realistic demands of supply-side structural reform in the agricultural sector,the connotation and characteristics of high-quality agricultural development are sorted out,defined and clarified.This dissertation holds that agricultural high-quality development is the expansion and extension of high-quality development in the field of agriculture.It is always guided by the problems and objectives of agricultural development,effectively solve some deep-seated contradictions such as “unbalanced,uncoordinated,insufficient and unsustainable” of agricultural development,and centrally reflect the development of three major changes in quality,efficiency and power.It is a multi-dimensional,high-standard,high-efficiency,sustainable development that benefits people’s livelihood,and a development that achieves the comprehensive goal of agro-ecological,economic and social benefits,which is qualitatively different from agricultural modernization,agricultural sustainable development and high-speed agricultural growth.2.Based on the connotation and characteristics of high-quality agricultural development,a set of comprehensive and practical evaluation index system of agricultural high-quality development level was constructed.This dissertation combined with the current policy guidelines on agriculture and the research results of predecessors,and follow a research paradigm that combines theoretical selection and empirical selection,the evaluation index system constructed is more rigorous and comprehensive than before.Concretely speaking.(1)Follow the ideas of construction basis,conceptual model,dimension analysis and the initial formation of the system to complete the preliminary construction of the evaluation index system.(2)Through the methods of Correlation analysis,Discrimination analysis and Multicollinearity analysis,the analysis and evaluation index system is optimized.(3)30 specific indicators were selected from the five dimensions(sub-systems)of green ecological development,output quality and efficiency,scientific and technological innovation driven,economic stable operation,increase of people’s livelihood and well-being,complete the construction of evaluation index system.3.Based on the measurement,development stage and type,and regional(provincial)comparison,this dissertation evaluates and analyzes the agricultural high quality development level in Xinjiang.(1)From the measurement results,the level of agricultural high-quality development in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020 showed a steady growth trend,but there is still room for improvement.In terms of sub-systems(dimension),the development of the various sub-systems of Xinjiang’s agricultural high-quality development has shown different growth,but the growth rate is different.Among them,economic stable operation and well-being increase are the fastest improvement.(2)From the perspective of development stage and type,from 2010 to 2019,the agriculture high-quality development level was at a low level,and the type was developmental.In 2020,the agriculture high-quality development level was at the medium level,and the type was catch-up.In terms of sub-systems(dimension),according to the mean value of each sub-system in the research area,economic stable operation > output quality and efficiency >green ecological development > scientific and technological innovation driven > the increase of people’s livelihood and well-being.(3)The agricultural high-quality development level and sub-system development level of Xinjiang and the comparison area(province and city)have achieved different degrees of improvement,the evolution trend is basically the same,and the overall fluctuation is relatively small,but the growth rate is slower than that in the comparison region(provinces and cities).4.Based on the coupling coordination degree model and obstacle degree model,diagnosis and analysis on the restrictive factors of high quality development of agriculture in Xinjiang from the relationship between subsystems and the evolution of key influencing factors.Originally,the use of coupling coordination degree model analyzes the Xinjiang’s agricultural high quality coordination problem for the development of sub-systems,The results show that,from 2010 to 2020,the coupling coordination degree of each sub-system of Xinjiang’s agricultural high-quality development is between 0.476 and 0.827,in the overall research period it is relatively low,and the change is relatively stable,with an average annual growth rate of 4.61%.In terms of stage division,the first stage is the basic coordination state(2010-2012),and the second stage is the good coordination state(2013-2020).In general,during the study period,the coupling coordination degree curve of all sub-systems of agricultural high-quality development in Xinjiang generally showed a “W” shape,rising in the fluctuation,but the stability was not strong,indicating that the degree of mutual integration among sub-systems was not high,and there is still much room for improvement.Primarily,use the obstacle degree model to analyze the obstacle degree of each index layer and criterion layer respectively,the results show that production quality improvement(B4),policy support intensity(B7),improve production efficiency(B3)and Application of scientific and technological achievements(B6)in the criterion layer and national agricultural product geographical indications(C15),green food(C14),agricultural science and technology personnel allocation rate(C16),agricultural insurance depth(C23),land productivity(C11),rural financial development(C22),contribution rate of scientific and technological progress(C19),mechanization level(C18),agricultural labor productivity(C10)and agricultural socialization service level(C13)are the key obstacle factors affecting the high-quality development of agriculture in Xinjiang,more breakthroughs can be found in these factors in agricultural development.5.Based on the theory and method of system dynamics,the path of improving the level of agricultural high-quality development in Xinjiang is simulated and analyzed.Using Vensim PLE simulation software,based on the data from 2010 to 2020,this dissertation analyzes the causal feedback relationship of Xinjiang Agricultural high-quality development system,and constructs the system simulation model,adjust the important parameters inside the system,four different development paths are designed: the status quo continuation type,the economic priority type,the environmental protection type and the coordinated development type,and comparative analysis of the evolution trend and path differences of high-quality agricultural development in Xinjiang under different development paths.The study finds that the path to improve the high-quality development of Xinjiang’s agriculture should follow the optimal path of “status quo continuation type(2021-2024)-coordinated development type(2025-2030)”.In the long run,the coordinated development path can better meet the needs of the continuous improvement of the high-quality development of Xinjiang’s agriculture,which is also in line with the current policy guidelines and the realistic considerations of Xinjiang’s agricultural development.6.Based on the actual situation of Xinjiang’s agricultural development and the results of multi-dimensional evaluation and analysis,recommendations for promoting agricultural high-quality development in Xinjiang were put forward at multiple levels.Focusing on five sub-systems(green ecological development,output quality and efficiency,scientific and technological innovation driven,economic stable operation,increase of people’s livelihood and well-being)to make up for shortcomings and promote collaboration,take multiple measures simultaneously and put forward policy suggestions to promote the agriculture high-quality development in Xinjiang,which can provide advice and suggestions for agricultural high-quality development in Xinjiang and provide reference for the research of similar problems in China.