The Research On The Economic Resilience Of China’s Megacities

Megacities refer to cities with more than 10 million permanent residents living in the urban area for more than half a year.As of the cut-off point of the seventh census,there are seven megacities in China: Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Chongqing and Chengdu.As the economic,political and cultural center of the region and even the whole country,megacities have played a vital role in the development of the national economy.However,the continuous agglomeration of population and resources to the city also increases the complexity and vulnerability of the urban system.Megacities are facing the realistic dilemma of difficult risk control,strong risk harmfulness and risk breaking through the boundary of time and space.Future crises are difficult to predict and avoid.Economic resilience provides a new perspective for the steady and long-term development of megacities.Urban economic resilience refers to the ability of urban economic system to resist,recover and evolve in response to shocks.Based on the above research background,according to the research logic of "theoretical research-current situation evaluation-mechanism analysis-strategy formulation",this paper takes 7 megacities in China as the research object,evaluates the current level of economic resilience of megacities,analyzes the evolution mechanism of economic resilience,and then formulates the strategy.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the index evaluation method is selected to quantify the current level of economic resilience of mega cities,and the causality and hierarchy analysis of the initial evaluation index system are carried out to solve the defects of causal confusion and unclear hierarchy in the index evaluation method;Secondly,a relative evaluation model is constructed to evaluate the level of economic resilience its sub dimensions.It is found that Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen are in the high level of economic resilience,Guangzhou and Tianjin are in the medium level,Chengdu is in the low level,and Chongqing is in the low level;Thirdly,this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of economic resilience of megacities from the aspects of convergence,coupling coordination and explanatory power of influencing factors.It is found that the spatial difference of economic resilience of megacities tends to decrease gradually with the passage of time,but the coupling coordination of economic resilience of all megacities is weak,but megacities with high level of economic resilience usually have more main factors with positive promotion;Fourth,the system dynamics model of economic resilience of megacities is constructed by using the flow rate basic in tree modeling method.The model does not have a second-order minimal basic model core,but there are seven third-order and more feedback loops;Fifthly,the dynamic model of megacity economic resilience system has passed the direct structural test,structural behavior test and behavior test,which can be used for simulation.It is found that resistant resilience is the dominant factor in the level of economic resilience,and the level of economic resilience depends on the level of correlation and coordination among the three sub dimensions;Sixth,this paper designs the strategy formulation idea of "concise characteristics-comparative analysis-short board Disclosure-strategy formulation",and puts forward the overall promotion strategies and different levels of promotion strategies for megacities.