| Although China has entered the aging society since 2000,the degree of aging in the eastern coastal areas is far below the national level,among which the floating population is an important reason.As an "imported" demographic dividend,the floating population changes the regional structure of the population in a faster way and keeps up the "demographic dividend" in some parts of China,especially in some eastern coastal cities,thus maintaining the secular growth of exports.After the "shortage of migrant workers",the role of the floating population has become more and more prominent.However,the current research about the floating population and export still focuses on the cost mechanism,ignoring the investigation of the level of human capital of the floating population.Whether from the characteristic facts observed in this paper or based on the realistic feelings,we find that in addition to the low-cost labor force such as "migrant workers",there are also "college students" who are highly educated.The impact of these two groups on exports is obviously not identical.How to give full play to the existing "demographic dividend" of the floating population and further tap the neglected "talent dividend" of the floating population is of great significance to the development of China’s export.In theory,this paper uses Melitz(2003)model to describe the cost mechanism and human capital mechanism of floating population affecting enterprise export within the same framework by adding the hypothesis of heterogeneity of workers and acquired determinants of enterprise productivity.Firstly,this paper proves that the inflow of floating population is beneficial to the export of enterprises,and describes in detail the two mechanisms of floating population promoting the export of enterprises.At the same time,it further proves the possibility of the existence of "crowding effect of human capital mechanism" and "complementary effect of human capital mechanism".In addition,using this model,this paper also discusses the influence of floating population on the transformation of trade mode,and points out that the transition from processing trade to general trade is an important way of transformation of processing trade exports,in which the high human capital of floating population plays an important role.Empirically,this paper uses the data of China’s industrial enterprise database,customs data,sample survey data of 1%of the population in 2005,China’s Urban Statistical Yearbook,China’s Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook and statistical yearbooks of provinces and cities to verify the role of urban floating population in enterprise export.This paper demonstrates the impact of urban floating population on enterprise export from three perspectives:overall,transformation and upgrading of processing trade export,and comparative analysis between the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.When discussing the overall impact of the floating population on the export of enterprises,this paper verifies the total effect of the floating population on the export of enterprises and makes a lot of robustness analyses.In the key part of mechanism test and "crowding effect" and "complementary effect",this paper designs two sets of empirical schemes as mutual verification.It proves that the cost mechanism and human capital mechanism of floating population affecting the export of enterprises,as well as the existence of "crowding effect" and "complementary effect" in the human capital mechanism.Finally,based on the redults,this paper discusses how to give full play to the role of the floating population in the export of enterprises.When discussing the transformation and upgrading of enterprise’s processing trade export,we still stick to the role of high human capital of floating population.Firstly,we validate the impact of floating population size on the total export of enterprise’s processing trade,and through the decomposition of binary margin,we analyze the impact on different margins.Furthermore,this paper uses the binary margin to discuss the transformation and upgrading mode of export from processing trade to general trade,and demonstrates the role of high human capital floating population in promoting this transformation and upgrading mode.Finally,based on the redults,this paper discusses how to give full play to the role of the floating population in the transformation and upgrading of enterprise’s processing trade export.Finally,this paper focuses on the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta to make a more specific and detailed comparative analysis.Through comparative analysis,we find the specificity of the impact of high human capital floating population on the export of enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region,that is,high human capital floating population is not conducive to the export of enterprises.By comparing the industrialization modes of the two places,we find that the early choice of the level of foreign capital introduction by the government is an important reason for this predicament.Although in the past,the two governments have chosen their own development path,but in the face of changes in national conditions and circumstances today,the existing development pattern of the Pearl River Delta region can not adapt to the challenges of foreign trade in the new era.Therefore,we use the relevant characteristic facts and quantitative empirical analysis to illustrate the intrinsic reason why the floating population with high human capital has restrained the export of enterprises in the Pearl River Delta Region-the damage to the rights and interests of the floating population with high human capital,and further point out that it is difficult to effectively solve the dilemma of high human capital floating population’s inhibition of enterprise export by simply copying the policies and measures of other cities.Only by changing thinking,not only meet the "most concerned" and "most urgent" problems of floating population,but also combine the specific analysis of the city’s own conditions,starting from the resources it can provide,develop its strengths and avoid its weaknesses,and make use of its own favorable conditions can we enhance the attraction of cities to the floating population with high human capital. |
