| Prunus sibirica,one of the feature ecological and economic forests in northern China,boasted of fertile resources and was well-known for its longevity,early fruit,easy cultivation,and strong root-system.Meanwhile,its characteristics in fixing soil,conserving soil-water,resistance to barren and drought,thermo stability,wide-adaptability,rapid development,abundant production and perfect quality attributed its position as the best choice for economic forest development in arid and semi-arid regions in northern China,quality botanical sources for building water-soil conserving forest as well as pioneering trees for vegetation restoration in fragile ecological regions for its high value in comprehensive utility.With the consecutive improvement of public living standard and the increasing demand for almond in domestic and overseas market,apricot industry improved its position in Chinese forest industry rapidly as well.However,against the gradual perfection of economy globalization and market organism,competiveness of apricot industry in China is highlighted together with transformation of apricot production from resources superiority to price competing,realization of efficient forestry,increase of farmers’ income and adjustment of apricot industrial structure met with obstacles and further development of national apricot industry was heavily challenged.In the recent years,although concrete research achievements had been attained in aspects relating to apricot forest management technique and nutrition value system like seedling breeding,winter-proof and high-yield cultivation,problems concerning the effective control over incomplete development of floral organs and freezing damage during flowering season as well as the limited breakthrough in physiological study severely restricted the scale planting of Prunus sibirica.By far,reports on apricot are mostly themed at the introduction of utility value and extension vision or analysis over the production and challenges in apricot cultivation in different regions,neither including the systematic analytical study on the nationwide distribution of Prunus sibirica resources,yield and quality,nor proposing forecasting methods on apricot yield and market demand or a strategic decision-making for the industry development,which,both theoretically and practically speaking,will be of high significance for further study.Targeted at the existing problems in Prunus sibirica industry and based on principles quoted from industry programming,market equilibrium and comparative advantages,this dissertation conducted Delphi investigation,comparative analysis,normative analysis and econometric analysis over the raw material supply,market demand and other related key issues in Prunus sibirica industry to contribute theoretical guidance for cultivar breeding,cultivation,exploitation and utility of Prunus sibirica,decision-making references for national agencies,local governments and forestry or technological bureaus,industry adjustment and feature competitive industry development recommendations for farmers,as well as scientific evidences for market-oriented apricot processing industries solidly founded on the results applying literature review,route survey,scale land survey,monoclonal inventory,systematic collection of nation-wide germplasm resources as well as analytical study on Prunus sibirica supply.The dissertation concluded that:Ⅰ.Prunus sibirica resources survey and analysis in 8 provinces and regions including Hebei,Beijing,Liaoning,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Gansu and Xinjiang in China demonstrated that the fruiting area of apricot in Inner Mongolia(1000 thousand hm~2),Hebei(185 thousand hm~2),Gansu(144.8 thousand hm~2),Liaoning(125 thousand hm~2),Shaanxi(118.4 thousand hm~2),Beijing(60 thousand hm~2),Shanxi(16.7 thousand hm~2)and Xinjiang(2.6 thousand hm~2)reveals a descending order as above;and the yield of almond,totaling 1.5552 million tons in 2011,descended from that of Inner Mongolia(712.6 thousand tons)to Gansu(263.75 thousand tons),Hebei(160.25 thousand tons),Shaanxi(93.8 thousand tons),Liaoning(77.3 thousand tons),Beijing(18.5 thousand tons),Xinjiang(5.5 thousand tons)till Shanxi(3.9 thousand tons);almond yield per hm~2 decline from Xinjiang(2084.85Kg)to Gansu(1820.85Kg),Hebei(866.25Kg),Shaanxi(792.60Kg),Liaoning(618.15Kg),Inner Mongolia(543.75Kg)Beijing(308.25Kg)till Shanxi(231.0Kg).To conclude,Prunus sibirica in Inner Mongolia ranked the top in both producing area and yield.Ⅱ.Prunus sibirica resources had its majority to be planted forest,accounting for 75%of the total,which is mainly located in northern China,northwest China and Northeast China,among them Inner Mongolia boasted of the highest occupancy with its area planted forest and natural forest both covering 50%of that of the national totality,followed by Hebei,Liaoning and Shaanxi.Planted forest in Shaanxi accounted for the highest percentage given the ratio of planted forest area to total area in all provinces and regions.Planted forest and natural forest varied greatly in fruiting area and fruiting rate and generally rate of planted forest surpassed that of the natural ones.Ⅲ.The Gray-Marlkov Prediction Model set up and surviving the significance and R-square test forecasted a yield range of almond from 157.2 to 165.1 thousand tons in 2012 and the most close data to be 161.1 thousand tons.The national market demand prediction model boasted of GFI is 0.997,revealing that the prediction approximately copied that of actual production;the high prediction accuracy model forecasted a market demand of 184.23 thousand tons of Prunus sibirica in 2015 as well.Ⅳ.Aiming at improving the problems in seeds and varieties,fructification obstacles,extensive management,lack of scientific operation,low industrialization,lagging secondary and tertiary industries,low comprehensive benefits and incomplete mechanism and organism,the paper elaborated on the apricot industry development tendency considering industry structure,produce structure,market structure and industry distribution,conducted SWOT illustration for apricot,put forward 7 efficient and effective solutions to the development of Chinese Prunus sibirica industry including the setting-up of brand-new mechanism,full exertion of government roles in satisfying national program need,documentation of development and operation principles as well as policies and financial support,advancement of scale industry,transformation of technology,upgrading of quality and yield promotion the healthy development of industry and trading through proper extension and information service platform,standard production to improve quality of raw produce and food security,etc.Ⅴ.The paper proposed the industry development guiding norms and recommended 6 market-oriented strategies like standard production and processing strategy,brand-name strategy,geographical indication strategy,industrialization strategy and synergetic development of innovation and sci-technology;at the same time reviewed the apricot industry development policies to facilitate long term vision,market capacity and international competitiveness with theoretical guarantee. |
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