| With the aging of the population and the extension of the average life span,the proportion of the elderly disabled has increased year by year,and the demand for elderly care is increasing day by day.Under the realistic background that home-based care is still the first choice for the vast majority of the elderly,the home-based care of modern families,especially the one-child families,is facing a difficult choice:family care?Or buy community elderly care services?Or an effective combination of the two?Compared with community elderly care services,family care not only does not have the support of professional elderly care services,but also occupies a large number of working hours in the children’s market.Therefore,it is urgent to focus on home-based elderly care and its needs to investigate the extent to which community elderly care service projects can reduce family care time investment;Find the optimal combination between community elderly care service and family care,and explore the optimal allocation of items,quantity,price and subsidies of community elderly care service,so as to open up the"last mile"between community elderly care service and family care,and promote the construction of elderly care service system of"coordination of home community institutions".This thesis constructs the utility function of home-based elderly care,that is,Uhome-basedelderly care utility=（x community elderly care service,y family care）,and explores the relationship between community elderly care service and family care through cross price elasticity,that is,around family care,the items of community elderly care service are divided into substitutes and complements;For the community elderly care service projects of substitutes,the income effect and substitution effect mechanism caused by their price changes are investigated respectively;Expand the discussion on the impact of the project adjustment scheme（projects required by the elderly）and price adjustment scheme（pension service subsidies,pension benefits,etc.）of community pension services on family care time,so as to establish the policy choice to optimize the allocation of community pension services.The study uses the unbalanced panel data of China elderly health influencing factors tracking survey（CLHLS）from 2014 to 2018,corrects the sample self selection error through Heckman two-step method,constructs the mediation effect model and regulation effect model,and tests the impact mechanism of community elderly care services on family care time.The study uses the unbalanced panel data of China elderly health influencing factors tracking survey（CLHLS）from 2014 to 2018,corrects the sample self selection error through Heckman two-step method,constructs the intermediary effect model and regulation effect model,and tests the impact mechanism of community elderly care services on family care time.The following research conclusions are obtained:The main conclusions are as follows:1.Based on the type of community elderly care services,community elderly care services will replace and supplement family care time in the disability stage and dying stage of the elderly respectively.The provision of elderly care services in the community will significantly reduce the family care time of the disabled elderly by 5.05 hours per week and supplement the family care time of the dying elderly by 0.965 hours.Among them,the community elderly care service will give full play to the professional care function,support each other with the care provided by the son in the disabled elderly family,and squeeze out the daughter’s care participation;Relieve the family care pressure of the dying elderly and reduce the care time of their children.Heterogeneity analysis shows that community elderly care services and family care complement each other and help to meet the care needs of the elderly living with their families,but there is a lack of support for the care of the disabled elderly living alone.With the decline of the elderly’s self-care ability,the substitution effect of community elderly care services on family care is gradually weakened.The substitution effect of community elderly care services in eastern provinces and cities is better than that in central and western provinces and rural areas.It shows that there are provincial differences in the supply of community elderly care services and uneven distribution between urban and rural areas,and the service level and quality level need to be improved.2.Based on the price of community elderly care services,the family care time of disabled elderly is more sensitive to the price change of community elderly care services.When the price of community elderly care service drops by 1%,the family care time of disabled elderly will be reduced by 0.085%;The family care time of the dying elderly will be reduced by 0.081%.The cross price elasticity of community elderly care services for the disabled elderly and the dying elderly is greater than zero,indicating that the family care time,that is,the demand for family care,is positively correlated with the price of community elderly care services,and they are substitutes for each other in terms of service positioning.The cross price elasticity of different community elderly care service projects shows that the price of daily care projects will be reduced by 1%,the family care time of disabled elderly will be reduced by 0.040%,and the family care time of dying elderly will be reduced by0.067%.The price of medical and health care projects will be reduced by 1%,the family care time of the disabled elderly will be increased by 0.052%,and the family care time of the dying elderly will be reduced by 0.044%.The price of life support projects will be reduced by 1%,and the family care time of the dying elderly will be reduced by 0.042%.The results show that as a substitute for family care,community elderly care service is more concentrated in the replacement of family care for the disabled elderly,which is mainly reflected in daily care projects;The substitution of family care for the dying elderly is more comprehensive,which is reflected in three types of projects:care,medical treatment and assistance.3.The price change of community elderly care service will affect the demand of family community elderly care service from two aspects:substitution effect and income effect,and have different effects on family care time.The price of community elderly care service affects the family care time of the disabled elderly and the dying elderly through part of the intermediary of the family care burden.For disabled elderly families,the price of community elderly care service decreases,the demand increases,the probability of children participating in family care decreases,and the time of family care decreases.At this time,the substitution effect plays a stronger role in the overall change of family community elderly care service demand due to the decrease of community elderly care service price.Family economic resource endowment negatively regulates the price of community elderly care services and the family care time of disabled and dying elderly.Disabled elderly families with higher annual income have more stable demand for community elderly care services.Disabled elderly families with lower annual income are more likely to increase the purchasing power of community elderly care services and reduce family care time due to the decline in the price of community elderly care services.At this time,due to the decline in the price of community elderly care services,the total demand for community elderly care services is changing,The income effect is stronger.When the unit time price of community elderly care service is maintained at 0-50 yuan/hour,it can ensure that the families of disabled elderly and dying elderly with an annual income of less than 30000 yuan will not be squeezed out.With the decline of self-care ability of the elderly,the importance of community elderly care service in care is becoming more and more prominent.If the community elderly care service is located in a reasonable price range,it will alleviate the threshold effect of price,prevent potential target consumer groups from being squeezed out,expand the substitution of community elderly care service for family care and reduce the burden of family care.4.Among the three price reduction schemes of community pension services,pension service subsidies are more effective in stimulating family community pension services,and the effects of children’s economic support and pension are limited.The pension service subsidy,for the disabled elderly families,helps to reduce the price threshold of community pension services,expand the demand for community pension services,reduce the care time of families with a juvenile income of less than 30000 yuan and more than 80000 yuan,alleviate the care burden of low-income elderly families,and improve the purchasing power of middle and high-income disabled elderly families;For the dying elderly families,it can only expand the community elderly care service demand of families with an annual income of less than 30000 yuan and reduce the care time of families with an annual income of less than 30000 yuan.Economic support from children,as a form of support for family pension,complements care.It is mainly used for other consumption such as family necessities,and has limited effect on improving the demand for community pension services.Pension,as one of the main sources of income for the elderly,increases the purchasing power of family community elderly care services through income effect.However,under budget constraints,families with an annual income of less than 30000 yuan can only buy the just needed part of community elderly care services,which has limited effect on the care time of low-income families in the disability period.It shows that the beneficiaries of the three price reduction schemes of community elderly care services are mainly low-income elderly families with an annual income of less than 30000 yuan,followed by middle and high-income elderly families with an annual income of more than 80000 yuan.In view of the above research conclusions,this thesis puts forward the following improvement suggestions from the perspective of community elderly care service audience positioning,service project optimization and subsidy policy design.First,community elderly care services need to accurately target the main audience to the elderly,widows and elderly living alone in low-income families,so as to fully cover the groups in need of care.Second,on the supply side of community elderly care services,we should focus on the allocation of daily care projects,both supplementary medical care and spiritual comfort projects,so as to avoid falling into the misunderstanding of seeking perfection and idle resources.Third,give full play to the advantages of community platform,encourage the sinking of elderly care institutions,improve the overall planning ability and quality level of community elderly care services,and expand professional care services to the whole stage of disability and dying of the elderly.Fourth,improve the differential subsidy system for the consumption capacity of community elderly care services.While giving full play to the advantages of subsidies,set up a subsidy starting line and ceiling line to ensure the basic elderly care service needs of low-income groups,and improve the use specification and operation efficiency of elderly care service subsidies.The innovations of this thesis are as follows:（1）construct the utility function of home-based elderly care service,build a unified theoretical analysis framework for analyzing home-based elderly care service decision-making,and expand the research scope and applicable dimension of consumer behavior choice theory to a certain extent.（2）The community elderly care service is subdivided into specific project types such as maintenance,medical care,assistance and assistance.Through the cross price elasticity,it is clear that daily care and life assistance projects are substitutes for family care,and the docking mechanism of the two is refined.（3）Based on the realistic background of wide coverage of community elderly care services,and based on the translation and rotation of family budget constraint line caused by different price reduction strategies such as pension income and elderly care service subsidies,this thesis measures its implementation effect,and enriches the relevant research results of price intervention policy evaluation in the elderly care service market. |
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