| The sustainable and high-quality development of human economy and society is facing the severe challenge of global climate change.Climate change characterized by global warming is threatening all aspects of natural ecosystem and socio-economic system.China is in a sensitive area of climate change and is more vulnerable to its impact.Especially for the rural and pastoral areas in the West with fragile ecology,sensitivity and relatively slow economic development,both natural resources that ensure ecological security and agriculture that provides an important guarantee for the stable development of the national economy are vulnerable to climate change.As an important ecological security barrier and animal husbandry production base in northern China,Inner Mongolia’s fragile ecological environment is particularly exposed to the impact of climate change,which increases the instability of the development of grassland animal husbandry with advantages,characteristics and leading industries in Inner Mongolia.As the most direct bearer of climate change,especially in the context of increasingly tight resource constraints at the present stage,climate change has brought an impact on herders based on grassland animal husbandry production,and further affected their production technology efficiency and income,which to a certain extent will restrict the realization of industrial prosperity,slow down the pace of rural revitalization,and even hinder the modernization of grassland animal husbandry.As an important guarantee for the food safety of animal husbandry and the livelihood of herdsmen,how to adapt to climate change is the focus of the government and scholars,and it is also the key to be solved urgently,which is greatly related to the sustainable,high-quality development of natural resources and even pastoral economic and social.Based on this,accurately grasping the adaptive behavior of herdsmen to climate change,so as to scientifically guide herdsmen to adapt to climate change and improve the production technology efficiency and income of animal husbandry is not only an important part of the revitalization of pastoral areas,but also the key to promoting the modernization of grassland animal husbandry.On the basis of combing the influencing factors and effects of farmers’ and herdsmen’s climate change adaptive behavior at home and abroad,this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework of the influencing factors and effects of herdsmen’s climate change adaptive behavior through herdsmen’s behavior decision-making theory under uncertainty,production frontier theory,global public goods and externality theory and sustainable development theory,and combs and summarizes the climate change characteristics of animal husbandry banner(city)in Inner Mongolia by using macroscopic meteorological data.On this basis,using the field survey data of herdsmen in grassland pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia,analyze and classify the herdsmen’s climate change adaptive behavior in the study area from the micro level,mine the influencing factors of herdsmen’s climate change adaptive behavior by using multivariable probit model and Poisson regression model,and further through stochastic frontier approach,instrumental variable method and multivalued treatment effect model to explore the effects of different climate change adaptive behaviors on herdsmen’s production technology efficiency and animal husbandry income,and finally summarize the research conclusions,so as to provide empirical basis and policy suggestions for promoting herdsmen to adopt reasonable and effective climate change adaptive behaviors.Therefore,the main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)From 1984 to 2016,the annual average temperature in the study area showed a significant upward trend,while the change trend of annual cumulative average precipitation was not obvious on the whole.Specifically,the warming trend of the study area from east to west is significant and the warming rate increases gradually,and the annual cumulative average precipitation only in the eastern study area has a significant downward trend and the fastest rate.74.12% of herdsmen will adopt climate change adaptation behaviors.Among them,38.67%,27.53%,17.54%,12.16% and 4.10% were herdsmen who "increase the purchase and storage of forage","build sheds","drill wells and develop water sources","advance the slaughter time" and "go for otor" respectively.In the choice of adaptive behavior,herdsmen located in typical grassland and desert tend to give priority to engineering and non engineering adaptive behavior at the same time.In terms of adaptive behavior intensity,except for herdsmen who do not take adaptive behavior,the proportion of herdsmen who take one adaptive behavior is the highest,followed by herdsmen who take two adaptive behaviors at the same time.(2)First of all,except that there is no significant correlation between drilling wells and developing water sources,and there is a substitution effect between increasing the purchase and storage of forage,there are complementary effects between other climate change adaptive behaviors.Secondly,herdsmen’s choice of climate change adaptive behavior is significantly affected by the individual characteristics of the head of household,family characteristics,climate change characteristics,market environment characteristics and grassland type characteristics.Among them,herdsmen who are engaged in animal husbandry with less labor force and more livestock on hand are more likely to choose to build sheds.Before reaching the critical point of temperature and precipitation,in the context of climate change with gradually increasing temperature and precipitation,herdsmen with more experience in raising livestock,the greater the number of laborers engaged in animal husbandry and livestock in stock,have a higher probability of choosing to go for otor.In the case of increasing temperature(after the temperature reaches a certain threshold)and increasing precipitation(before the precipitation reaches a certain threshold),herdsmen with longer years of education,more livestock in stock and higher sales prices for the horses they raise are more likely to choose to drill wells and develop water sources.The farther away from the banner government,the smaller the number of livestock in stock and the more likely it is to have access to weather information services provided by the relevant departments and the higher the sales price of the sheep,cattle and camels herdsmen raises,the more likely it is that the herdsmen choose to increase the purchase and storage of forage.In the case of rising temperatures(temperatures above a certain threshold),the more livestock in stock,the smaller the actual pasture area used and the higher the sale price of the meat sheep raised,the more likely it is that the herders will choose to shed early.More than this,there are also heterogeneity in the adaptive behavioral choices of early slaughter,drilling wells and developing water sources,and increasing the purchase and storage of forage by grass type.In addition,there are differences in the factors influencing the choice of climate change adaptive behavior between pastoralists located in typical grasslands and deserts.Finally,the intensity of climate change adaptive behavior of herdsmen is mainly influenced by household characteristics,climate characteristics and market environment characteristics.Specifically,the higher the average annual temperature and the cumulative average annual precipitation,the further the distance from the banner government,the greater the number of laborers engaged in animal husbandry and livestock in stock,and the higher the number of mutton sheep and camels raised for sale,the more herders tend to increase the intensity of climate change adaptive behavior.In addition,the factors influencing the intensity of climate change adaptive behavior of herdsmen in different grassland types are equally variable.(3)Climate change adaptive behavior can effectively improve the production technology efficiency of herdsmen.After using instrumental variables to solve endogenous problems,adopting climate change adaptive behavior can significantly improve the technical efficiency of herdsmen by 21.1%.From the impact of other variables on herdsmen’s technical non efficiency,the distance from the banner government and transfer to grassland have significant negative and positive effects on the production and technical efficiency of herdsmen respectively.From the impact of different types of climate change adaptive behavior on technical efficiency,taking both engineering and non engineering adaptive behaviors can achieve higher technical efficiency(9.6%),only taking engineering adaptive behavior takes the second place(4.2%),and only taking non engineering adaptive behavior has the weakest effect on improving technical efficiency(3.1%).In the adaptive behaviors of climate change,increasing the purchase and storage of forage materials has the most significant effect on the improvement of technical efficiency,followed by the construction of sheds,and finally the drilling of wells and develop water sources.Compared with the production technology efficiency of herdsmen in desert,the production technology efficiency of herdsmen in typical grassland adopting climate change adaptive behavior is higher.(4)Compared with herdsmen who do not adopt climate change adaptive behavior,adopting climate change adaptive behavior can increase animal husbandry income.Among them,the adoption of engineering and non engineering adaptive behavior have the most significant effect on the promotion of animal husbandry income(1.122%),followed by only engineering adaptive behavior(0.413%),and only non engineering adaptive behavior has the least effect(0.269%).Compared with herdsmen in desert,herdsmen in typical grassland adopt both engineering and non engineering adaptive behaviors,only engineering adaptive behavior and only non engineering adaptive behavior,which have a more significant impact on animal husbandry income.Moreover,the adaptive behavior of climate change also indirectly affects the animal husbandry income of herdsman families through the intermediary variable of production technology efficiency.The mediating effect accounted for 71.229%.According to the above research conclusions,in order to reasonably guide herdsmen to more actively adapt to climate change on the premise of taking into account grassland ecology and family income,this thesis puts forward the following policy suggestions:(1)Improve the capacity of early warning and reporting of climate change and promote the construction of information sharing mechanism;(2)Build and improve diversified services and promote herdsmen to actively adapt to normalization;(3)Strengthen the construction of engineering infrastructure and realize the double support of subsidies and technology;(4)Ensure the effective supply of forage and make rational use of grassland resources. |
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