| The AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023,released by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),points out that the acceleration of global temperature rise is due to the rapid urban development and the concentration of human activities.Climate change increases the probability of extreme precipitation events,and cities are at greater risk of flood.This greatly affects the stability of urban system and the development of urban security.Urban resilience is important for urban flood prevention.It has transformed urban disaster governance from passive management to active management.The passive management refers to the response after a disaster,and the active management refers to prevention before a disaster,quick response during a disaster,active recovery after a disaster.Therefore,many scholars began to focus on how to improve the resilience of urban flood disaster.The existing research on urban resilience still has the following problems.Firstly,most studies analyze the urban resilience in a context like total disasters or public crises,and do not focus on the urban resilience for the impact of a specific disaster.Secondly,the research is few for the mechanism of urban disaster resilience on the analysis framework including disaster process and urban complex system.Thirdly,the assessment scale of disaster resilience is mostly concentrated on the provincial level due to the difficulty in obtaining micro-data of specific disasters with limited the research methods and analysis perspectives.Therefore,certain issues require further investigation,including the mechanism of urban flood disaster resilience,the evaluation for the resilience of urban flood disaster and the analysis on spatial and temporal pattern evolution,the experience of resilient city construction,and the path to improve urban resilience.This article establishes the analysis framework including urban system,flood disaster and resilience construction,and defines the concept of urban flood disaster resilience,explains and analyzes its characteristics from the dimensions of pressure,state,response and urban economy,society,ecology and engineering.And analyzes the mechanism of urban flood disaster resilience from the perspective of disaster evolution process and urban complex ecosystem..The purpose is to explore Chinese urban flood disaster resilience including the development level,the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics,and the lifting path.First,this article defines the connotation and characteristics for urban flood disaster resilience that is based on the existing relevant literature,and explains the mechanism of urban flood disaster resilience with the classic theories such as Pressure-State-Response,Urban Complex Ecosystem,and Disaster Resilience.Second,this article establishes the evaluation index system with the system review method from three dimensions and four urban systems.The three dimensions includes pressure,state,response,and the four urban systems include economy,society,ecology engineering.Then,this article evaluates the flood resilience of 284 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2011 to 2020 using the Range Maximization Combination Empowerment Optimization model.This article analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of urban flood disaster resilience using different methods such as the Nuclear Density Estimation,ESTDA,and Spatial Markov Chain.Third,this article constructs the anthems configuration analysis model from the perspective of configuration based on the TOE theoretical framework,and explores the realistic lifting path for Chinese urban flood disaster resilience with the method of fs QCA.Finally,this article proposes recommendations based on the above analysis results,and points out the shortcomings and future research directions in this research.This study draws the following conclusions based on the above research ideas.(1)The concept of urban resilience enables the flood disaster management paradigm.Resilience of urban flood disaster can be defined as the ability of urban system on reduce the loss of internal factors when facing the impact of flood disaster risk.It includes the ability of anti-interference,the ability of rapid recovery,the ability of absorption and adaptation to flood risk,and the ability of continuous evolution.Constructing a Composite Evaluation Framework of Urban Flood Disaster Resilience with the classic theories such as PSR,SENCE,and DRT.(2)The resilience of urban flood disasters in China varies greatly among regions and the development is uneven,with the phenomenon of "high-level monopoly" and "low-level trap".In terms of time series,the results of spatio-temporal pattern evolution analysis show that the resilience level of urban flood disaster in China is gradually improving,in which the development of pressure resilience is relatively stable,the state resilience decreases with fluctuates greatly,and the response resilience improves significantly.On the aspect of regional gradient,the resilience level of urban flood disaster decreases in the order of "EastMiddle-West-Northeast",and on the aspect of city scale,it decreases in the order of "Super Large-Extra Large-Large-Medium-Small".In terms of spatial distribution,the results of spatio-temporal pattern evolution analysis show that the resilience of urban belt in the eastern coastal areas presents a medium to high level,the resilience of provincial capital cities in the central region is higher and drives the surrounding cities with low resilience,and the resilience of cities in the northwestern and northeastern areas are more differentiated.The pressure resilience in all regions is relatively average;the state resilience in high in central and eastern regions,and low in northeast and northwest regions;the response resilience is high in eastern and the western regions and low in central regions.In terms of dynamic evolution,the resilience level of each city shows a significant spatial agglomeration trend,the dynamic change paths of local spatio-temporal pattern are significantly different,and the spatial structure and spatial dependence direction are stable,showing the coexistence of collaborative growth and spatial competition.With the change of time,the probability of urban toughness level achieving leapfrog growth increases,but the radiation effect between neighboring cities is limited.(3)The configuration results show that technical conditions(Risk monitoring ability,Risk early warning ability),organizational conditions(Financial resource supply,Policy attention),and environmental conditions(Flood disaster risk,Public participation)cannot be the necessary conditions for improving urban flood disaster resilience alone,but flood disaster risk is the bottleneck condition that causes low resilience.There are three configuration paths for realizing the resilience of high urban flood disaster,namely,"Technology Driven + Policy Support ","Low Risk + Technology Driven " and " Policy Support + Public Participation".There are two configuration paths for low resilience,which are causally asymmetrical with the realization path of high resilience.The research findings of this paper lead to the following policy recommendations for relevant departments: Firstly,it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and early warning technology for urban flood disasters,and grasp the situation of external pressure for cities effectively;Secondly,it is necessary to strengthen the redundancy and robustness of urban systems including economic,social,ecological and engineering to prevent and meet the impact of flood disasters in a better state.Third,it is necessary to improve the flood disaster emergency plan,subsidence disaster management unit,strengthen the depth and breadth of community and residents’ participation in disaster management,and improve the disaster response and recovery capacity of the city.The innovation of this research is mainly reflected in the following aspects: First,from the perspective of research,urban system,flood disaster and disaster resilience construction are included in the unified analysis framework,and a composite assessment model of urban flood disaster resilience is constructed from the integration perspective of disaster evolution process and urban composite ecosystem to measure the resilience level of urban flood disaster in China.From T,O and E dimensions,the configuration effect of multi-factor synergistically driving the improvement of urban flood disaster resilience was explored,and the structural composition and driving factors of urban flood disaster resilience were analyzed from multiple perspectives.Second,in terms of research methods,a range maximization combined weighting optimization model with both subjective and objective weights is used to measure urban flood disaster resilience,effectively reducing the subjectivity and error of assessment results.fs QCA is used to empirically analyze multiple paths that drive urban flood disaster resilience improvement,making up for the deficiencies of single qualitative or quantitative analysis.The research results are more scientific and credible,and the research on complex causal relationship exploration in the field of disaster management is enriched. |
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