Assessment Of Urban Resilience And Its Spatial-temporal Evolution

The city is constantly suffering from internal and external shocks in the development process,making the concept of resilient cities the focus of current urban planning.The development of resilient cities not only helps to promote the fine management of cities,but also improves the construction of urban infrastructure and increases the level of resilience of cities to risks.Based on the theories of sustainable development and spatial interaction,this paper constructs an urban resilience evaluation index system on four dimensions of urban economy,society,ecology and infrastructure.Using twelve prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province as the research unit,the entropy weight method and TOPSIS model are combined to measure the urban resilience of the prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province as a whole and the three major regions from2008 to 2017,analyze the time-series changes of their urban resilience,and calculate the global Moran’s I index by software and draw a LISA agglomeration map to explore the evolution and divergence of the spatial pattern of urban resilience in Hubei Province,The results show that:(1)In the temporal evolution,the development trend of urban integrated resilience in Hubei Province shows a decreasing trend followed by an increasing trend,and the development trend of integrated resilience is basically the same among the four major dimensions except for ecological resilience and engineering resilience;in terms of spatial distribution,the characteristics of the spatial distribution of urban integrated resilience gradually converge from western and eastern Hubei to central Hubei,while the development of urban integrated resilience in Hubei Province shows an uneven state of polarization.(2)The urban integrated resilience indices of all prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province show negative correlations,and the strength of their correlations tends to decrease and then increase over time,and their significance test indices show a trend of first increasing,then decreasing and then increasing.The local spatial correlation study found that the western region of E showed a high-low agglomeration centered on Xiangyang,the central region of E had always shown a low-high agglomeration centered on Suizhou,and the central cities in the eastern region of E had changed but basically showed a low-high agglomeration centered on Wuhan.The LISA agglomeration map shows that the spatial agglomeration area has been changing,and the development of the comprehensive resilience level of each prefecture-level city has been in a fluctuating state,no city can maintain the leading position all the time,but the gap between the comprehensive resilience strength of each city has not changed much over time.By strengthening the spatial linkages between cities and combining them with the results of city resilience assessment,the government can identify weak areas and major influencing factors of cities,to formulate effective resilience enhancement policies for cities and achieve sustainable urban development.