| China has a vast sea area and abundant offshore wind energy resources.Offshore wind power has developed rapidly and has become an important part of China’s energy structure.There are various types of offshore wind power foundation,and the traditional single pile foundation in Europe is more.In recent years,the cylindrical foundation independently developed in China has gradually taken the lead in the world because of its high efficiency and low cost,and has also become one of the important types of offshore wind power foundation in China.Facing the trend of diversification of wind turbine foundation types and construction,transportation and installation methods,high-efficiency and large-scale construction of offshore wind power projects,how to ensure the safety and risk management in the whole life cycle of its construction and service has become an important problem to be faced and urgently solved for the rapid and good development of offshore wind power in China.At the same time,compared with other energy engineering,the application of digital and information technology of offshore wind power is relatively weak,and there is no mature offshore wind power digital management platform,especially in the field of risk management.Based on risk analysis theory,safety evaluation method and digital information technology,this paper carries out the research on risk analysis and safety management of offshore wind power construction and service.The main research contents and results are as follows:（1）The risk assessment theory of offshore wind power construction period is proposed,and the risk index system of different foundation types of offshore wind power construction period is established.HAZOP risk identification method is used to identify the risk sources during the construction of tubular foundation and single pile foundation,and the risk index system is established.The improved fuzzy fault tree and expert comprehensive evaluation method are combined to quantify the overall risk occurrence probability during the construction period of tubular foundation and single pile foundation,and the two calculation results are compared and analyzed.The results show that the risk probabilities of tubular foundation and single pile foundation during construction are3.54?10-3 and9.37?10-3 respectively,and the risk probability of single pile foundation during construction is significantly higher than that of tubular foundation.Finally,aiming at the problem of high towing risk during the construction period,the dynamic stability analysis model of tubular foundation and floating platform is established by simulation calculation,and the safety of towing process during the construction period of tubular foundation is evaluated。.（2）The risk assessment theory of offshore wind power in service period is proposed,and the risk index system of different types of offshore wind power infrastructure in service period is established.Firstly,FMEA risk identification method is used to identify the risk sources of tubular foundation in service period,and the risk index system is established.Then,the improved fuzzy fault tree and expert comprehensive evaluation method are combined to quantify the overall risk occurrence probability of tubular foundation and single pile foundation in service period,and their calculation results are compared and analyzed.The calculation results show that the risk occurrence probability of tubular foundation and single pile foundation in service period is4.11?10-3 and 4.44?10-3 respectively,and the risk occurrence probability of single pile foundation in service period is slightly higher than that of tubular foundation.Finally,based on simulation calculation,the durability of tubular foundation in service period is evaluated from three aspects:foundation bearing capacity,structural stress and structural fatigue,and compared with that of single pile foundation.The results show that compared with single pile foundation,cylindrical foundation has better anti inclination ability and longer fatigue life.（3）The vibration risk prediction model of tubular foundation is constructed based on LSTM neural network.The vibration and wind power of offshore wind turbine in the future 0.5-2H are predicted by using wind speed,wind direction and historical data series.Two common evaluation indexes,average absolute percentage error and root mean square error,are used to evaluate the prediction effect of LSTM neural network prediction model,and the prediction results are compared with BP neural network.The calculation results show that the prediction performance of LSTM method is obviously better than BP neural network and has good engineering practicability;With the increase of prediction time,the prediction accuracy of LSTM decreases,but its prediction accuracy is more than 80%,which provides a theoretical basis for risk management of offshore wind turbine.（4）The safety monitoring index system of offshore wind turbine foundation construction and service period is established,and the offshore wind power digital management platform is developed.Relying on the risk assessment theory and logic,the risk management platform for offshore wind turbine foundation construction and service is studied and developed,and the relevant algorithms are compiled,including risk monitoring,risk analysis and prediction,risk early warning and decision-making,knowledge base,etc.the digital management of tubular foundation risk is realized by combining real-time monitoring data with risk analysis theory. |
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