| With the acceleration of globalization and socio-economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions continue to grow,bringing a series of environmental impacts,and reducing carbon emissions has become an international consensus.As the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter,China also attaches great importance to environmental issues.The National 14 th Five-Year Plan and Vision 2035 outline aims to achieve a “carbon peak” by 2030 and “carbon neutrality” by 2060.However,China’s unreasonable energy structure is not yet aligned with the target.In 2021,China’s coal consumption reached 56%,its dependence on crude oil got 72%,and its carbon emissions accounted for 85% of its total carbon emissions.Therefore,new energy development is a strategic choice to achieve the goal of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” and a necessary way to alleviate China’s energy security,solve the environmental pollution issues and achieve sustainable economic development.Revolutionary new energy innovation is the key to increase the share of new energy in China and achieving the “double carbon” goal.Since the Renewable Energy Law came into effect in 2006,the government has developed a series of policy instruments to promote new energy innovation,including supply-side policies to stimulate production activities,demand-side policies to stimulate demand and encourage consumption,and environmental policies to build a healthy market and R&D environment.At the same time,new energy innovation policies have encountered some problems in their implementation.For example,the excessive dependence of enterprises on subsidies has given rise to rent-seeking issues,and the lack of regulatory mechanisms for enterprises has led to the abuse of financial subsidies.Therefore,in the face of the “double carbon” target constraints,how to design effective new energy innovation policies to promote energy transformation and reduce carbon emissions is an essential issue for China’s economic development.Under the Constraints of “carbon peak and neutrality” Target,this dissertation evaluates the effects of new energy innovation policy instruments,further examines the impact of new energy innovation policies on the energy transition,and explores their transmission mechanisms from the perspective of empirical evidence.This dissertation also examines the intrinsic mechanism and transmission mechanism of new energy innovation policies affecting carbon emissions,further using Ramsey optimal policy as a reference to design optimal policies and trying to investigate the combined effect between policies from the perspective of theoretical evidence.This is a valuable extension of the existing literature and also provides suggestions and insights for the formulation of new energy innovation policies in China,promoting the successful achievement of the “carbon peak and neutrality” goal.There are seven chapters in the dissertation,which are organized as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction section,which analyzes the importance of new energy innovation in China in solving environmental pollution issues,energy security problems,and achieving sustainable economic development,describes the current situation of new energy innovation development and problems,and clarifies the necessity of new energy innovation policies and the practical,theoretical and policy implications of this dissertation.The chapter also introduces the research content,research framework,research methodology,and research innovation points of this dissertation.Chapter 2 is the literature review section.First,this chapter describes the necessity of government intervention in technological innovation.Second,this chapter compares the literature related to government policies and technological innovation,including supply-side,demand-side,and environmental-side policies,and also compares the literature on the impact of mixed policies on technological innovation.Again,this chapter compares the literature related to the energy transition,including the connotation of energy transition and the influencing factors.Finally,this chapter compares the literature pertaining to government policies and carbon emissions.Chapter 3 provides an overview of the development of new energy technologies.First,this chapter defines the concept of new energy innovation and clarifies the scope of this dissertation’s research.Second,this chapter describes the current development status of new energy technologies,including wind,solar,and biomass,and illustrates the inter-regional disparities in new energy innovation.Again,the Dagum Gini coefficient method is used to portray the size of the new energy innovation gap and its sources in China’s eastern,central and western regions.Finally,the kernel density estimation method is used to depict the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of new energy innovation in the three regions,revealing the characteristics of their distribution locations,distribution extensions,distribution patterns,and polarization phenomena.Chapter 4 assesses the effectiveness of policy instruments for new energy innovation in China.First,this chapter provides a detailed overview of the policies supporting new energy innovation,which are divided into three types according to the different points of emphasis,namely,supply-side policies that stimulate production activities such as investment and production,demand-side policies that stimulate demand and encourage the use of consumption,and environmental-side policies that build a healthy market or environment such as R&D for industrial development.Second,this chapter use Bayesian model averaging(BMA)and weighted average least squares(WALS)model averaging methods to examine the new energy innovation policy instruments between 2006 and 2018 using provincial panel data from supply-side,demand-side and environment-side perspectives.Finally,new energy innovation is classified into qualitative and quantitative innovations to examine the further effects of new energy innovation policy instruments.Chapter 5 analyzes the impact of new energy innovation policies on the energy transition.First,the logic of new energy innovation policies through improving new energy innovation and,thus,energy transition is explained.Second,using mixed regression estimation,the nonlinear effects of different types of new energy innovation policies on energy transition are examined empirically by introducing a quadratic term.Whether new energy technology innovation is,its transmission mechanism is verified by setting an interaction term.Finally,the nonlinear effects of different new energy innovation policies on energy transition in different regions are examined,and whether new energy innovation is its transmission channel is verified.Chapter 6 analyzes the impact of new energy innovation policies on carbon emissions.First,this chapter constructs an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(E-DSGE)model including different types of new energy innovation policies and the directional technological progress process,focuses on the inner mechanism and transmission mechanism of different types of new energy innovation policies,different types of technologies affecting carbon emissions and economic dynamics.Second,on the basis of the theoretical model,this chapter performs a full information Bayesian great likelihood estimation of the E-DSGE using Chinese macroeconomic,energy,and quarterly mixed frequency data to examine the impulse responses of main economic,energy,and environmental shocks and develop relevant counterfactual analysis.Again,this chapter evaluates the main new energy innovation policies by designing optimal policies and attempting to examine the combinations among them with reference to Ramsey optimal policies.Finally,this chapter further imposes a “double carbon” constraint based on the theoretical model to compare the long-term responses of vital macro variables to shocks under the “double carbon” target constraint.Chapter 7 concludes the dissertation by summarizing the selection of policy instruments for new energy innovation,assessing the effectiveness of the policies,and making corresponding policy recommendations.Finally,the shortcomings of this dissertation and future research directions are also pointed out.The main findings of this dissertation are summarized as follows:Firstly,about the choice of policy instruments for new energy innovation.First,for new energy innovation,demand-side policies,the intensity of environmental regulation,energy prices,green credit and investment-based incentives promote new energy innovation.In contrast,cost-based regulation policies and voluntary action policies inhibit new energy innovation,and supply-side policies,government attention and public participation have almost no effect on new energy innovation.Second,for high-quality new energy innovation,the importance of government,the intensity of environmental regulation,energy prices,green credit and investmentbased incentives promote new energy innovation.In contrast,cost-based regulation and voluntary action policies inhibit new energy innovation,and supply-side policies,demand policies and public participation have almost no effect on new energy innovation.Third,for low-quality new energy innovation,demand-side policies,government attention,the intensity of environmental regulations,energy prices,green credit and investment-based incentive policies promote new energy innovation.In contrast,supply-side policies,cost-based regulation policies and voluntary action policies inhibit new energy innovation,and public participation has almost no effect on new energy innovation.Secondly,about the new energy innovation policy and energy transition.First,there is a U-shaped relationship between new energy subsidies,market size and energy transition,while there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation intensity,green credit,cost-based regulation policies and energy transition.Under the perspective of new energy innovation,cost-based regulatory policies promote energy transition through new energy innovation,while new energy subsidies,environmental regulation intensity and green credit inhibit new energy innovation and are not conducive to energy transition.Second,in the eastern region,market size,government attention,environmental regulation intensity,energy prices,investment-based incentives and cost-based regulatory policies promote energy transition through new energy innovation.Third,in the central region,green credit promotes energy transition through new energy innovation.Fourth,in the western region,cost-based regulatory policies promote energy transition through new energy innovation.Finally,on new energy innovation policies and carbon emissions.First,although supply-side subsidies increase the share of new energy,they increase total output and carbon emissions and improve economic losses from carbon emissions.Demand-side subsidies increase the share of new energy,reduce total output and carbon emissions,and reduce the economic loss from carbon emissions,but for a shorter period.Environmental policies reduce the share of new energy sources,which increases the economic loss from carbon emissions in the short term but reduces the economic loss from carbon emissions in the long term.Second,production technology shocks,energy technology shocks,and new energy technology shocks will lead to a decline and then an increase in output,and a decline and then an increase in carbon emissions,and the economic loss from carbon emissions will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term.Third,supplyside subsidy policies achieve the highest social welfare performance,followed by environmental policies.In contrast,demand-side subsidy policies achieve the relatively lowest maximum welfare performance,which predicts that a combination of environmental policies in the form of commitments and camera decisions should be used.The main contributions and innovations of this dissertation include:Firstly,in terms of research selection.Compared to previous studies that mostly focused on the effectiveness of single or multiple policies,this dissertation provides a detailed overview of the policies that support new energy innovation,divided into three types according to the different points of emphasis,namely,supply-side policies that stimulate production activities such as investment and production,demand-side policies that stimulate demand and encourage the use of consumption,and environmental-side policies that build a healthy market or environment such as R&D for industrial development.The relative contribution and effectiveness of different types of new energy innovation policy instruments are analyzed under a unified framework.In the context of China’s current “double carbon” target,the findings of this dissertation have substantial policy implications.Secondly,in terms of theoretical analysis.Chapter 6 constructs an E-DSGE model that includes producers,energy manufacturers,households,and the government.The model incorporates new energy technology innovation policies,directed technological progress processes,and environmental factors into a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model,which theoretically reveals the intrinsic mechanisms of different types of new energy innovation policies and other types of technologies affecting carbon emissions and economic growth.At the same time,chapter 6 also investigates the impact of various new energy innovation policies and different types of technologies on carbon emissions and other macro variables under the constraint of the “double carbon” policy modeling and finally provides relevant policy recommendations.Thirdly,in terms of policy evaluation and design.This dissertation classifies the policies supporting new energy innovation into supply-side policies,demandside policies,and environmental-side policies.Chapters 4 and 5 examine the effectiveness of new energy innovation policy instruments and further explores the effectiveness of new energy innovation policies in promoting energy transition through new energy innovation.Chapter 6 takes Ramsey optimal policy as a reference,discusses the optimal policies to cope with economic shocks under different types of technological shocks and various types of new energy innovation policy instruments and tries to explore the combined effect between policies,and provides a targeted reference for relevant functional departments to formulate appropriate policies.Fourthly,in terms of quantitative analysis.In Chapter 4,the WALS method is adopted to identify and test the effectiveness of renewable energy technology innovation policies,which solve the problems of heavy calculation burden and unclear prior information in the BMA method,and allows the author to set the model’s key explanatory variables and other explanatory variables according to the theoretical analysis.This method makes these key policy factors insensitive to the researchers’ subjective information set selection.In addition,the methodology compares the relative importance of all possible determinants of policy,and policymakers can act accordingly on these dominant policies. |
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