Research On The Risk Analysis And Scheme Decision Of Quasi Public Welfare Hydraulic PPP Project

In recent years,with the rapid growth of China’s economy,the demand for water conservancy infrastructure has also increased dramatically.The huge investment in quasi-public welfare water conservancy projects has put heavy pressure on government finances.The PPP(Public-Private-Partnership)model has great advantages in reducing government fiscal expenditure,introducing social capital,and improving service efficiency.Therefore,in the construction of quasi-public welfare water conservancy projects,the PPP model has been favored by government departments.Due to the large scale and long period of quasi-public welfare water conservancy PPP projects,they are susceptible to the influence of economic environment and other factors.In addition,there are few quasi-public welfare water conservancy PPP projects implemented in China before,and there is a lack of systematic quasi-public welfare water conservancy PPP projects and risk management experience.In the process of project investment and construction,whether the risks existing in the project can be fully identified,whether they can be distributed fairly and reasonably,and whether the optimal decision-making of the project by different stakeholders are a matter of common concern for all parties involved.Therefore,research on public welfare PPP projects can not only provide a theoretical basis for the risk management and decision-making of the participants,but also provide guidance for project contract design and negotiation practice.In this paper,quasi-welfare water PPP project is the research object,with the project risk identification,allocation and implementation stage scheme decision-making being investigated.Firstly,it introduces the concept,characteristics,and development history and application status of PPP model in China;secondly,it introduces the characteristics and risk management theory of quasi-welfare water conservancy PPP project.This thesis establishes the risk framework based on HHM(hierarchical holographic modeling)theory to identify the risk factors of the project.Additionally,it introduces the risk allocation based on the risk allocation framework of PPP model;it constructs the risk allocation framework based on Shapley value and utility theory.Furthermore,based on the theory of perceived utility,a multi-objective group decision optimization model is proposed.Taking Fengsheng water conservancy project in Chongqing as an example,this paper identifies the key risk factors existing in each stage of the project,calculates the proportion of risk shared by the government and private sectors of the project,and studies the decision-making scheme by adopting the multi-objective group decision-making scheme optimization model based on the perceived utility theory.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper introduces the definition,classification and advantages of PPP model,defines the concept and characteristics of quasi public welfare water conservancy projects according to the conditions that China’s water conservancy projects are divided into three categories: operational,quasi public welfare and public welfare,discusses the feasibility and necessity of introducing PPP model into quasi public welfare water conservancy projects in combination with the development status of quasi public welfare water conservancy projects in China,and sorts out the quasi public welfare water.The characteristics of PPP project and the risks faced in financing,construction and operation lay a theoretical foundation for the research on risk management of quasi public water PPP project.(2)After analyzing the typical cases of PPP projects in the past,this paper summarizes the risks in quasi public welfare water conservancy PPP projects.Based on the theory of HHM risk identification,this paper establishes the HHM risk framework of quasi public welfare water conservancy PPP projects,which is divided into three types of risks: economic,social and environmental risks,and four types of stage risks: project decision-making,preparation,implementation,and operation life cycle risks.Also,this paper determines the importance of risk in each risk type and each stage by applying analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method.Using decision making trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)risk identification theory,the economic risk and the key risk in each stage of the project are identified.The case study shows that: in the PPP project of Fengsheng reservoir project in Chongqing,the economic risk and implementation stage risk are the key risk types in the PPP project,the risk of project change and construction cost overrun is the most critical risk in the economic risk,and the risk of construction period and construction cost overrun is the most critical risk in the implementation stage risk.Therefore,in the risk control of quasi public water PPP project,risk prevention and control should be done for the risk of construction period,project change and construction cost overrun.(3)After deeply studying the existing risk sharing principles,analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of various risk sharing methods,combined with the characteristics of quasi public welfare water conservancy PPP project,considering the investment ratio,negotiation status,the difference of risk disposal ability of both parties and other factors,a risk sharing model based on Shapley value and utility theory is established.Taking Chongqing Fengsheng reservoir PPP project as an example,the risk sharing scheme is studied.In view of a shared risk in the implementation stage of the project,the risk sharing proportion based on the utility theory and the Shapley value of different sharing subjects are calculated,and the Shapley value is used to modify the risk sharing proportion of the utility theory,and the optimal risk sharing proportion of the government sector and the private sector is obtained,which provides a reference for the economic risk sharing of quasi public water PPP projects.(4)Aiming at the optimization of multi-attribute group decision-making scheme of quasi public water PPP project,a multi-attribute group decision-making model based on the theory of perceived utility is established,and a group decision-making method based on the representation of possibility matrix is proposed in combination with the group negotiation and aggregation theory.Based on the decision-making model and Monte Carlo simulation technology,the paper calculates the winning probability of the two diversion schemes,and obtains the fuzzy complementary judgment matrix to describe the winning degree of the diversion scheme,according to which the alternatives are prioritized.It provides technical support for the scheme decision-making in the implementation stage of quasi public welfare water PPP project.