| Water shortage is becoming one of the important factors that restrict social and economic development and stability, especially in the north of China. Whether shortage of water resources is determined by two factors, water demand and water supply, is still uncertain. Since it is also affected by runoff, rainfall and other randomized factors, so there are risks existing in the regional water supply system. In order to reduce the economic losses due to water shortage, it is necessary to evaluate the risk of water shortage, and manage the risk by a series of structural and non-structural measures based on the evaluation. At present, risk management of water resource shortage lack systematism and practicality, it is essential to study the water resource shortage risk based on the theory of risk management. Therefore, the risk source of regional water system can be confirmed, the risk degree at varies planning year and the strategic planning flames can be carried out in the future and realize sustainable social and economic development and water resource sustainable utility. Thus the study on regional water resource risk management has theoretic and practical value.Taking the Capital circle region as the case study, the paper systemically studies the theories and methods of regional water resource risk management based on concerned specialty knowledge, such as systems engineering, probability theory, water resources and hydrology, fuzzy mathematics and compute mathematics. The aim is to maintain social and economic sustainable development and water resource sustainable utility. The major contents and achievements are as follows:1. Based on the definition of water resource risk, a systemic frame of water resource reliability and risk is established, in which the indexes of water resource risk are defined and the risk property and character of water system are presented.2. Based on the theory and method of risk identification, the riskidentification method is adopted to identify risks in water resources system. The paper also sets up an influence chart model of water resource risk factors to recognize the complexities relationship among risk factors of water resource.3. Based on the risk analysis methods of water resources system and water demand and supply model, a risk analysis model of regional water supply and utility system with large reservoir groups is put forward. The model combines simulation method and optimization method to regional water supply and utility system, analyzing long series water supply and demand system with the object of the annual maximum water supply, counting water shortage capacity and its distributing probability, describing water shortage risk with risk character indexes.4. When the water shortage risk is calculated, the input and output macro-economic model of water resource is employed to evaluate economic losses due to water shortage. Then the fuzzy synthesize judge model is adopted to evaluate the calculation results of water shortage risk. Based on the analyses to the indexes of water resources system, a CIS-based synthesizing index model is brought forward to divide water shortage risk, and as case study, the water shortage risk of the Capital circle is zoned.5. The effect of varies risk control measures on risk capability indexes of water resources system is discussed, and then the contribute rate of varies measures to reduce water shortage is illuminated. The strategies to control water shortage risk are put forward as well.6. Based on the risk decision-making theory in systemic theory, risk decision-making of water shortage is discussed in three levels, that is, single object risk decision-making, avail expectation value decision-making and multi-object risk decision-making.7. Based on the equilibrium principle between supply and demand, the optimal control criterion theory of water shortage risk is established from two aspects, one aim at the whole guarantee system of regional water resources, the other discuss the risk control criterion o... |
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