Research On Risk Evaluation Of Tender Decision-Making For EPC Projects

The construction of an engineering project is a complicated systematic engineering process. In the modern engineering project, the construction scale is large, the technical difficulty is quite high, the construction period is very long and the project requires high quality. And therefore, before the bidding of a construction contracting project, the contracting enterprise needs to do the risk analysis and evaluation of the construction project to have a clear and thorough understanding of the project. Otherwise, in the contracting construction process, it is very likely to lead to the losses of the enterprise, and cause serious economic loss.The EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) mode is introduced into China in the1980s as a new contracting mode in the modern project management. In the EPC mode, the contractor or the contractor association needs to be responsible for the design, procurement and construction of the project until the delivery of the entire process of the project to provide the contracting services throughout the whole process. And the fixed price contract is signed between the owner and the contractor. Therefore, most of the project risk is undertaken by the contractor. So, in the tender decision making process of an EPC project, the scientific and reasonable risk assessment and decision-making will affect the economic benefits of the contractor, which has an important meaning for the contractor.The study discusses on the EPC contracting project, and establishes the risk index system for the tender decision making process of the EPC project. On this basis, the grade evaluation to the risk indexes is completed. By the analysis and research of the characteristics in the EPC contracting projects, the study identified the risk factors and risk indicators in the EPC projects, and established the risk index system in the bidding decision making process of the EPC contracting projects. The network hierarchy process (ANP) is applied to analysis and judge the relationship of the risk indexes in the risk indexes system, and construct the bidding decision-making risk index system, which overcomes the defect that the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) cannot reflect the interdependence and feedback relationship of the risk indexes. The Super Decision software is applied to the risk index weight calculation of the bidding decision-making in the EPC project. Finally using the grey clustering evaluation based on the trigonometrical whitenization function rates the indexes level, establishes the relevant trigonometrical whitenization function, do the grey clustering of the risk rating, and obtain the comprehensive bidding decision-making risk level of the EPC project. The evaluation and calculation to the risk in a case of EPC chemical project validates the effectiveness and the scientificity, which provides a theoretical basis and reference to the bidding decision-making in the EPC project.