The Impact Assessment Of China’s Power Transition On Atmospheric Mercury And Its Health Benefits,Water Resources And Employment

The power sector contributes about one-third of China’s carbon dioxide emissions,simultaneously,it is also an important source of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide,atmospheric mercury,and particulate matter.Facing the international commitment to the"carbon peak and neutral"goal and the increasingly severe environmental challenges,vigorously promoting the clean and low-carbon transformation of power sector has become an inevitable trend.However,the power transition is a complex systematic project,which will not only change the power supply pattern,but also affect indicators such as resources,environment,health and employment,thereby changing China’s overall sustainable development goals（SDGs）.Therefore,clarifying the synergy or trade-off relationship between power transformation and different SDGs is an important basis for promoting the synergy between power transformation and sustainable development strategy.Based on this,this study selects the SDGs closely related to power transition,such as mercury emissions,water resources,health and employment,and builds an assessment model for the impacts of power transition on different SDGs.The results can provid data reference and theoretical basis for policy makers to weigh transition goals between different systems.In terms of responsible consumption and production（SDG 12）,this study compiles high-resolution mercury reduction inventories,which covering 1 288 coal-fired power plants in China.The results effectively improve the accuracy of the inventory compilation,and reveal the spatio-temporal evolution of atmospheric mercury emissions under the effect of power transition.The results showed that the power transition reduced mercury emissions by 23.51 t,equivalent to 20%of the total mercury emissions of coal-fired power plants in2010.In terms of residents’health and well-being（SDG 3）,this study constructs a model for evaluating health benefit realated to mercury emission reductions,which combines atmospheric transport,food trade and epidemiology modules,to quantify the health impacts of the power transition in terms of avoiding fetal IQ loss and death from heart attack.The results verify that the health risks associated with mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants have decreased by 9.32%,and about half of the health benefits in each province related to mercury emission reductions in other regions.In terms of decent employment and economic growth（SDG 8）,this study uses the input-output method and structural path analysis to quantitatively analyze the changes and impacts of the employment pattern in the power sector and its upstream industries.the direct and indirect effects of the power transition on employment,which reveals the changes and impact paths of the employment pattern in the power sector and its upstream industries.It also explores the direct and indirect effects of power transformation on overall employment,and reveals the conflicts and contradictions among different transformation goals.Although the indirect employment driven by wind power and photovoltaics grew by more than 200%,the total number of direct and indirect employment related to the power sector decreased by 1.27 million.In terms of clean water and sanitation（SDG 6）,this study compiles a high-resolution inventory of water resources used by power sector.The results comprehensively evaluate the impacts on water resources caused by transformation measures,such as phasing out power plants,adding desulfurization facilities and building photovoltaic power stations.Moreover,the key factors related to power sector’s water extraction and consumption have been identified.During the 12^th Five-Year Plan,the power transition has reduced water consumption by 6.73%overall,while the elimination of power plants reduced water consumption by 268.63 Mt.Finally,based on the standardized grading system for SDGs,this study quantitatively analyzes the positive or negative effects of power transition on the scores of different SDGs,which reveals that the total scores of the five SDGs have increased 6.44 points.Under three policy scenarios,the potential impacts of future power transition on SDGs are predicted,which verify the average score of the five SDGs will increase 7.36 to 12.89 points as of2050.The results provide data basis and decision-making tools for formulating management strategies for collaborative optimization of power transition and SDGs.