Study On CO₂ Emission Intensity And Emission Reduction Quotas Of Industrial Sectors In The Context Of Dual Circulation

In the face of the world’s unprecedented changes in a century,facing a complex external environment and experiencing the impact of the Corona Virus Disease2019 on the social economy,the Chinese government proposed to build a new development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement.Meanwhile in response to the non-traditional security threats of climate change,the Chinese government proposed in the"Notice of the State Council on the Issuance of the Action Plan for Carbon Peaking by 2030"that"by 2030,carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by more than 65%compared to 2005".Therefore,based on the perspective of building a new double-cycle development pattern,dividing the"double-cycle"industrial sector,decomposing the CO₂ emission intensity of industrial sectors and projecting the CO₂emission reduction quotas for each industrial sector in 2020-2030 are of urgent importance for China to achieve the dual goals of high-quality development and carbon peaking.This paper takes CO₂ emission intensity as the entry point,expands the energy consumption module and CO₂ emission module based on the input-output table published by the National Bureau of Statistics,removes the interference of price factor and import factor,compiles a comparable price non-competitive hybrid input-output table,and constructs a hybrid input-output model through mathematical derivation.Through the domestication rate and the domestic demand contribution rate,the hybrid input-output model divides all industrial sectors into those that are primarily in the domestic cycle and those that are actively involved in the international cycle,from a supply-demand perspective.Under this classification,this paper calculates the CO₂emissions and CO₂ emission intensity of each industrial sector,obtains the high-impact industrial sector of CO₂ emission intensity by defining the CO₂ impact coefficient,and decomposes the change of CO₂ emission intensity of each industrial sector into energy consumption structure effect,energy consumption intensity effect and input structure effect.The change in national CO₂ emission intensity is also decomposed into the import substitution effect,energy consumption structure effect,energy consumption intensity effect,input structure effect,domestic demand structure effect,and domestic use structure effect.Then,this paper calculates the impact of industrial restructuring on the CO₂ emission intensity of each industrial sector from 2002 to 2012 and 2012 to2020.Finally,using the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,projections of CO2emission reduction allowances in each industrial sector for 2020-2030 are made using five scenarios:Sustainability,Middle of the Road,Regional Rivalry,Inequality,and Fossil-fueled Development.Based on the above research,this paper distills six research findings.（1）Based on the game theory model,this paper argues that establishment of a"dual circulation"development pattern and"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals"are consistent in terms of their ultimate goals.The two will not hinder each other’s process.（2）In this paper,we obtained a division of industrial sectors based on a"dual circulation"perspective.Specifically,28 industrial sectors are subdivided into the following four categories:import-domestic sales sector,domestic-domestic sales,import-export sector and domestic-export sector.A clear classification standard is provided for the subsequent study.And through the CO₂ emission influence coefficient,it is found that the petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing sector;the non-metallic mineral products sector;the water production and supply sector and the electricity and heat production and supply sector are the high-impact industrial sectors in terms of CO₂ emission intensity.（3）In terms of the national CO₂ emission intensity,the consumption-side CO₂emission intensity contributed the most to China’s CO₂ emission intensity from 2002 to2020,while the import substitution effect caused by a large number of imported intermediate products was the main reason for the increase in China’s CO₂ emission intensity.The energy consumption intensity effect has the effect of reducing the intensity of China’s CO₂ emissions.And the domestic demand structure effect does not have a significant impact on China’s CO₂ emission intensity.（4）In terms of CO₂ emission intensity of industrial sectors,the change in energy consumption intensity from 2002 to 2020 is the main reason for the change in CO₂emission intensity in the domestic-domestic sales,import-domestic sales sector and import-export sectors.And the change of CO2 emission intensity of domestic export sector is mainly influenced by energy consumption intensity effect and input structure effect.Meanwhile,this study finds that the energy demand structure effect has a very limited impact on the CO₂ emission intensity of each industrial sector due to the actual situation of China’s natural energy endowment.（5）From the perspective of industrial restructuring on the CO₂ emission intensity of each industrial sector,this paper finds that industrial restructuring is not conducive to the reduction of CO₂ emission intensity of domestic-domestic sales sectors.After2012,industrial restructuring began to play a role in reducing the CO₂ emission intensity of the energy-based and smelting industrial sectors in the import-domestic sector.The impact of industrial restructuring on the intensity of CO₂ emissions from the domestic export sector after 2012 is very limited.Industrial restructuring has a negligible effect on the intensity of CO₂ emissions from the import-export sector.（6）This paper obtains CO₂ emission reduction quotas for each industrial sector from 2020 to 2030 based on the projected GDP of China in 2030 under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.It is also found that there are 10 industrial sectors with CO₂emission reduction allowances at the billion-dollar level,of which 6 are attributed to the domestic-domestic sales sector and 4 are attributed to the import-domestic sales recycling sector,all of which belong to the domestic circulation-based industrial sectors.