| Greenhouse gases are the main cause of global climate change and that carbon reduction is of great value in combating climate change.In 2015,the 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference adopted the famous Kyoto Protocol,which formally introduced the concept of "carbon neutrality".On September 22,2020,President Xi Jinping announced at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly that the Chinese government would strive to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and work toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2060(the "30·60" target).In line with the regional properties of ecosystems,studying and promoting the realization of carbon neutrality at the regional level not only conforms to the inherent laws of ecological and environmental governance,but also can fully mobilize resources.In addition,optimizing and integrating resources and environmental elements from a larger scale makes it easier to achieve the carbon neutrality goal.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has received more attention and is more mature in development,and the problems such as uneven economic development,resource endowment and gaps in the level of green development are somewhat representative.In summary,this paper focuses on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and follows the research logic of "factor identification-quantitative measurement-policy recommendations" to carry out relevant research on the quantification of carbon reduction and sequestration potential of key carbon neutral influencing factors.Then,the research idea and the model algorithm aim to be applied to other regions in China,in order to contribute to the exploration of China to promote the realization of the "30·60" target from the regional level.The main research contents are as follows:(1)The key factors for regional carbon neutrality are proposed based on the analysis of carbon emissions drivers and peak prediction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.On the one hand,a model for predicting the peak carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the factor-driven effects is constructed.The model can achieve a more comprehensive and comprehensive carbon emissions driver discovery by combining LMDI-based carbon emissions decomposition;On the other hand,the model is based on the Genetic Algorithm-Extreme Learning Machine(GA-ELM)to form a peak carbon emissions prediction architecture,which can effectively overcome the shortcomings of existing machine learning algorithms such as under-or over-learning,and ensure the accuracy of peak carbon emissions prediction and the reliability on identifying and refining the key factors of carbon reduction and sequestration.On the other hand,through the analysis of the main path and development status of carbon sequestration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the key factors of carbon sequestration are refined.On this basis,by deconstructing the realization path of carbon neutralization,the key factors of regional carbon neutralization are proposed,namely,industrial structure upgrading,integrated energy network construction,and ecosystem carbon sequestration.(2)A model for predicting the carbon reduction potential of industrial structure upgrading in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region,taking into account the spatial effects,is constructed.The model combines the processes of designing quantitative indicators for industrial structure upgrading in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,analyzing the spatial effect of industrial structure upgrading(spatial Moran index),and building a prediction system based on the Gray Wolf Optimization Support Vector Machine(GWO-SVM)algorithm.This enables the quantitative measurement of the carbon reduction and sequestration potential of the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region under the influence of the key factor--industrial structure upgrading.The results show that the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region has certain spatial agglomeration characteristics in carbon emissions and industrial structure,and under the"policy-technology" scenario,it can reach the carbon peak in 2030,and the carbon emission reduction potential of industrial structure upgrading will continue to increase after 2035.(3)For the construction factors of the integrated energy network,a model is proposed to measure the carbon reduction potential of energy structure transformation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the multi-objective optimal operation of the integrated energy network double-layer.The model combines the processes of integrated energy network structure equation modeling,two-layer optimal scheduling modeling and solving(Solving the multi-objective optimal scheduling of bottom single energy network based on NSGA-II;Solving the top multi-energy network cooperative optimal scheduling based on model linearization),as well as operation comparison analysis of conventional energy system and integrated energy network.This enables the quantitative measurement of the carbon reduction and sequestration potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the influence of the key factor--integrated energy network construction.The results show that compared with the single integrated energy system,the regional integrated energy network can make full use of renewable energy,improve the efficiency of energy use,and has huge carbon emission reduction potential.(4)A model for predicting the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystem carbon sink in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region,taking into account ecosystem carbon sink factors,is constructed.The model combines the processes of IPCC-based measurement of total regional ecosystem carbon sinks,cointegration test-Granger causality test-based factor screening of ecosystem carbon sinks,and BP neural network-based measurement of carbon sequestration potential of ecosystem carbon sinks.This enables the quantitative measurement of the carbon reduction and sequestration potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the influence of the key factor--ecosystem carbon sinks.The results show that under the strong carbon sequestration scenario,the total carbon sequestration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is expected to reach 336.0617 million tons by 2025 and 388.6901 million tons by 2030,with a significant increase compared with the baseline scenario.(5)Based on the above research results of carbon reduction and sequestration potential measurement of various key factors related to carbon neutrality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the problems in the development of industrial structure upgrading,integrated energy network construction and ecosystem carbon sinks are analyzed.Furthermore,the countermeasures for promoting regional carbon neutrality are proposed accordingly.To sum up,involving the identification of carbon neutrality key factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,this paper constructs a model system for measuring the carbon reduction and sequestration potential of each factor.In the model system,the models for predicting the carbon reduction and sequestration potential of industrial structure upgrading which involves spatial effects,energy low-carbon transition and ecological carbon sinks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can provide scientific methods to quantify the carbon reduction and sequestration potential from multiple perspectives.Therefore,the existing research systems of carbon reduction potential analysis,which is mainly qualitative in nature,are enriched and expanded.In addition,the measured multiple potentials can be used as an important basis for formulating some policies related to regional carbon reduction and sequestration. |
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