Research On The Impact Of Major Public Health Emergencies On Light Industry

The world is in the midst of a century of unprecedented changes,with major public emergencies breaking out in countries around the globe.In 2020,the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has accelerated the evolution of the world’s major changes,and under the impact of the epidemic,global and regional supply chains,industrial chains and demand chains are at risk of disruption.Impact on China’s original export-oriented development model,especially in the value chain terminal enterprises or industries are more impacted.At the same time,the global demand for masks,respirators and other light industrial products surge,bringing complexity to the light industry multiple impacts.The 14th Five-Year period(2021-2025),China entered a new stage of development,a more solid foundation for development,the quality development of light industry also put forward new requirements:"to build a modern light industry system with stronger innovation,higher value-added,more sustainable development,to achieve China’s light industry from large to strong leap".Due to the sudden outbreak of the epidemic triggered by global economic uncertainty under the impact of supply disturbance,demand decline,unstable expectations will still likely continue,the stable operation of China’s light industry economy and high-quality development will continue to be under pressure.Overall,in the impact of the epidemic,light industry performance is divided,and light industry investment further slowed down,small and medium-sized enterprises of light industry are particularly affected.Therefore,at the critical period when China is moving from "a big country with light industry" to "a powerful country with light industry".It is of great theoretical and practical significance to conduct research that the impact of major public health emergencies on light industry and countermeasures.This paper develops a theoretical analysis and empirical study on the impact path of major public health emergencies on light industry.On the basis of literature combing and summarizing,theoretical derivation and analysis.This paper decouples the impact of major public health emergencies on light industry at different levels by using spatial statistical analysis,Time Varying ParametricStochastic Volatility-Vector Auto Regressive model,hypothetical extraction method,difference-in-differences model and other methods.First,based on the theoretical analysis framework,this paper tries to clarify the impact path of major public health emergencies on light industry.Second,in the empirical study,this paper quantifies the macroscopic shocks to the operation of light industry under major public health emergencies.The direct and indirect effects of the occurrence of major public health emergencies on typical light industries are measured.The net effect of the occurrence of a major public health emergency on the operation of light industry enterprises is also examined.Finally,based on multi-scale research and combined with national experience in dealing with major public health emergency shocks,this paper proposes countermeasures and summarizes policy insights for the light industry to deal with similar shocks at present and in the future.The main research contents and findings of this paper include the following:(1)In the time dimension,the development of light industry presents longterm stable,short-term fluctuations in the obvious characteristics.In the spatial dimension,mainly in the coastal areas show industrial clustering trend.First,for the overall development of the light industry,based on descriptive statistical analysis and spatial data analysis,it is found that the light industry has experienced a period of stable development in the past 20 years.From the special point of view,the interception two periods of the SARS and the COVID-19,it found that the light industry operating trends have shown obvious short-term fluctuations.From the spatial distribution of light industry development,China’s light industry is concentrated in coastal areas,with significant export-oriented economic characteristics.For example,the total assets of the agricultural and food processing industry accounted for nearly 20%of the light industry,and the main business income accounted for nearly 25%.To a certain extent,this reflects that the rigid demand of some industries,such as food industry,strongly supports the development of the light industry.(2)At the level of light industry as a whole,major public health emergencies have negative short-term impacts on light industry operations,especially light industry exports,but tend to converge in the long run.To quantify the degree of impact and persistence of major public health emergencies on the light industry,this paper effectively overcomes the data dimensionality problem of short-term emergencies research by using a time-varying parametric stochastic volatility vector autoregressive model.Moreover,the macro dynamic fluctuation trend of the light industry is measured by using the medium and light prosperity index and the sub prosperity index.On this basis,simulations are conducted by equalinterval impulse response function and time-point impulse response function.It is found that the development state of light industry tends to deteriorate at the early stage of major public health emergencies,especially in the export boom of light industry,which is particularly affected negatively.Subsequently,the state of light industry boom fluctuates slightly,but the negative shock effect gradually decreases until convergence in lags 8 to 12,and eventually a new system steady state will be achieved.This part of the study answers the question of whether the light industry will be affected by short-term shocks or sustained effects under the occurrence of major public health emergencies.(3)At the level of typical sub-industries of light industry,major public health emergencies have heterogeneous direct impacts on different industries,and the heterogeneous impacts on industries will be amplified or partially offset by industry linkage effects.To quantify the direct and indirect impacts of major public health emergencies on light industry sub-sectors,this paper uses a traditional input-output model to screen out key industries in light industry,and incorporates a weight matrix to measure the severity of major public health emergencies into a hypothetical extraction model,and focuses on the transmission effects among industries.It is found that the occurrence of major public health emergencies has both depressive and positive effects on the light industry.The effects are different for industries with immediate needs,industries related to epidemic prevention products and industries with traditional export advantages.It is worth noting that,the impact of the food industry on the paper and paper products industry,plastics and rubber products industry on the chemical raw materials and chemical products industry,leather industry on the furniture manufacturing industry and other industry-related effects.That is,it may lead to a weakening of the impact in sectors that would otherwise be negatively affected due to product-induced demand.It may also lead to a superimposed negative impact on sectors such as furniture manufacturing.This part of the study answers the question of which sectors are likely to be turned into opportunities and which are more vulnerable to a major public health emergency.(4)At the level of light industry enterprises,the occurrence of major public health emergencies has a negative impact on the operation of light industry enterprises,and the impact is more prominent for enterprises in key industries and small-scale enterprises.To examine the impact of major public health emergencies on light industry enterprises,the traditional DID model and the generalized DID model are used to effectively identify the net effect of major public health emergencies on enterprise performance.The study concludes that the occurrence of major public health emergencies has a negative effect on firm performance in both the SARS sample and the COVID-19 sample.In particular,the negative effect on firm performance is particularly pronounced for the longer-lasting and more widespread COVID-19.Second,from the heterogeneity analysis,differences in the severity of the epidemic,the nature of property rights,the intensity of industrial affiliation,and overseas operations lead to heterogeneous effects of major public health emergencies on firm operating performance.Further,the test of transmission effects by different paths reveals that the external degree of government response and the internal firm innovation capability are the key factors that affect the firm’s ability to maintain good operation under major public health emergencies.This part of the study answers the question of why some firms can maintain smooth operation or even achieve conversion and upgrading in the context of major public health emergencies,while some firms have difficulties in operation or even go bankrupt.(5)After summarizing the findings of this paper and summarizing the response policies to major public health emergencies in the past,the following policy insights are proposed for the light industry to deal with similar emergencies in the present and future.First,for the light industry as a whole,it should combine short-term management and long-term prevention,and pay attention to the balance between domestic and international markets.Second,for the light industry subsector level,for the key industries in the national economic system should be fully guaranteed its smooth operation.For the key industries related to epidemic prevention and rigid demand support industries,for example,the food industry,light industry special equipment manufacturing,etc.,it should vigorously promote its quality and efficiency.For the leather industry and other traditional export advantage industry should actively promote its cycle more smoothly.Third,for the light industry enterprise level,the impact of unexpected events as an opportunity for enterprise transformation,to improve the ability of enterprises to convert to promote industrial integration.At the same time,enterprises should focus on building corporate resilience,corporate resilience is the basis for industry uplift.Through different levels of response capacity enhancement,in order to build a multi-layer nested risk response system of "light industry,sub-industry,and enterprise",then ultimately achieve high-quality development of light industry.