Public health emergencies-COVID-19’s sudden outburst has caused a negative impact on my country’s still unstable carbon emission rights market.The carbon emission rights market is a fine-tuning mechanism for China to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as soon as possible.The price of carbon emission rights is the core factor of the carbon trading system.It is of great practical significance to study the action mechanism of the carbon emission rights market in response to the impact of events,and to discuss the fluctuation law of carbon emission rights prices,which provides an entry point for the government to rationalize the construction policy of the carbon emission rights market in the post-epidemic era,so as to maintain the stability of the carbon emission rights market.Promote the early realization of the "dual carbon" goal.Based on the background of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the thesis studies the impact mechanism of public health emergencies on China’s carbon emission rights market.Firstly,the impact path is analyzed based on the demand side and the supply side,and the theoretical mechanism of the impact path is constructed.Then,the transaction data of four carbon emission rights markets in my country are selected as the research samples,and the stochastic fluctuation model of dummy variables is introduced to construct the yield equation and the volatility equation.The method performs dynamic fitting to obtain parameter estimates,and quantitatively analyzes the impact of public health emergencies on income fluctuations in different carbon emission rights markets in my country.And the relationship between the four demand-side-driven factors of exchange rate,construct a conceptual logic path,further construct a custom multi-chain mediation model,and use the Bootstrap method to test the validity and size of the mediation effect of each path.The empirical results show that the public health emergency has a significant and long-lasting negative impact on the income and volatility of the four carbon emission rights markets.Emission rights market yields have the strongest response and the longest duration;Tianjin carbon emission rights market has the most severe fluctuations but the shortest duration of fluctuations.In addition to the direct effect of the epidemic on the carbon emission rights market,there are also four independent intermediary paths of economy,investor sentiment,energy,and exchange rate,from the economy to exchange rate,from economy to energy,from exchange rate to energy,and from economy The four chain-type mediation paths that are transmitted to the exchange rate influence energy are all significantly effective,and the relative effect of the path through energy accounts for the largest proportion.Finally,based on the empirical results,policy recommendations are put forward to promote the construction and development of the carbon emission rights market in the post-epidemic era. |