| The foreign trade is an important way for China to participate in the international circulation,and the industrial linkage is the basic path to form the resources circulation between the supply and demand sides.In the context of deepening reforms on the supply and demand sides and building a new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation,this paper examines the carbon emission effects of China’s international trade and industrial linkages.Firstly,the driving factors of exporting and importing carbon emissions from the growth rate perspective are decomposed.Secondly,the carbon industrial linkages based on the supply and demand sides are measured.Thirdly,the impact of servicification transformation trend on the carbon intensities of China’s manufacturing industries is analyzed.There are several major findings:(1)The effects of the exporting demand changes and the effects of international industrial linkage changes are the main factors driving the decline in the growth rate of China’s exporting carbon emissions.From 2012 to 2016,the growth rate of China’s exporting carbon emissions declined by 17.60%.The international forward industrial linkage change effect contributed a decrease by 9.55%.The effects of the changes in the final products and intermediate products exported to the Asia-Pacific region contributed the declines by-8.90%and-7.26%respectively.(2)The growth rate of China’s importing carbon emissions is fluctuating,and the carbon emissions caused by the import of intermediate products account for about 80%.From 2012 to 2016,the growth rate of China’s imported carbon emissions fluctuated by-32.10%,mainly because the effects of demand changes in final products and intermediate products imported from the Asia-Pacific region contributed-6.34%and-24.44%respectively.(3)The carbon effect of the industrial linkages from the domestic circulation dominates between the supply and demand sides.Only the electricity,gas and water supply sector is a major carbon emitters from both demand and supply sides.Besides,construction,public administration,education,health and social work,machinery,electronic and optical equipment manufacturing,and transportation equipment manufacturing are the main carbon emitters from the demand side.The mining industry,financial intermediary,R&D activities and other business activities departments,and transportation are the major carbon generators from the supply side.(4)The proportion of the value-added from the service industries embodied in the manufacturing demand side increases from 25.88%to 27.57%.The overall servicification level of China’s manufacturing industry is low,and it shows a transformation trend that domestic service inputs tend to replace foreign service inputs.(5)The servicification transformation trend has a lowering effect on the embodied carbon intensity of manufacturing industries,which mainly due to the basic service inputs,consumer service inputs and public service inputs.The reduction effect of those three types of servicification transformation trend on the manufacturing industries’ embodied carbon intensities are transferred by the carbon industrial linkages from the demand side.Therefore,China’s industrial carbon emission reduction should be considered from the perspective of domestic and international dual circulation.The domestic circulation is the key of industrial carbon emission reduction policy.Participating in the international circulation through the foreign trade can focus on strengthening the construction of the low-carbon trade mode under the framework of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area.Considering the difference in carbon industrial linkages of the supply and demand sides,a more targeted carbon reduction action plan can be formulated in the context of the deepening reform on the supply and demand sides.Promoting the further servicification transformation trend of the manufacturing industry is of important significance to achieve the win-win development of industrial development and carbon emission reduction. |
