Research On The Evolution Of Trade Structure And Node Resilience Of Critical Mineral Resources Trade Network

China has the most integrated manufacturing system in the world and needs to import a large amount of mineral resources every year to meet the needs of national production and living.In 2016,the National Mineral Resources Plan clearly put forward China’s national list of critical minerals,and listed 26 mineral resources as critical minerals of national concern.These 26 critical mineral resources play an extremely important supporting role in the development of China’s related industries,and are the top priority of China’s mineral resource supply security.Among the supply sources of 26 key mineral resources,international trade is one of the main sources of most mineral resources.As a special support for national industrial development,the international trade networks of critical mineral resources are faced with natural disasters,geopolitics along with many other risks like public health emergencies.It’s extremely easy for the emergent risks to bring immeasurable loss to the nodes in the networks.Under the background of the frequent emergent risk in the global trade network,this thesis,taking lithium and nickel as examples,studies two important issues in the trade network of critical mineral resources: The first one is the evolution of community patterns in global trade networks of critical mineral resources.The world’s major economies in all spare no effort to ensure the supply of resources security issue.Based on their position in a variety of critical mineral resources under the background of global competition,the European Union,the United States,China,Japan,Australia and other countries have put forward a list of critical minerals,leaving the trade of critical minerals under the influences of geopolitical,trade unions and other non-tradable factors.many large or small community structure formed in critical mineral resources global trade network.Conducting a thorough research to the evolution of critical mineral resources trade community is advantageous to the macro control of the situation of mineral resources trade,the security of resources supply of our country and the improvement of the scientific nature and effectiveness of the resources related policy.The second issue is the assessment of major countries’ risk resilience in critical mineral resource trade network.The world’s supply of critical mineral resources tends to rely on a handful of major producers,is highly susceptible to geopolitics,natural disasters,public health events as well as other emergent risks,so,digging into the field of the conduction of emergent risks and evaluation of the resilience of major countries in the global trade network of critical mineral resources from a macro perspective is of great significance.In view of the above two main research issues,this thesis makes an in-depth analysis of the global trade network of key mineral resources represented by nickel and lithium resources based on the theory of complex network.The main work of this thesis is as follows:(1)The global trade network of strategic key minerals obviously shows the nature of a complex network such as small-world and scale-free.Using global trade data,this thesis constructed the complex network model of critical mineral resources trade setting the countries as nodes and import and export trade between countries as links.In order to grasp the characteristics of global trade network pattern of critical mineral resources,the network topology is analyzed by using complex network statistics indexes such as degree and degree distribution of network,degree centrality of nodes and intermediary centrality.In this thesis,the data of six nickel products and basic lithium products are selected to conduct complex network modeling respectively,and the global trade structures of them are analyzed in depth from the perspective of multiple products and single-level products in the industry chain respectively.(2)Critical mineral resources play an important strategic role in the development of national industries,and the formation of its trade network is greatly influenced by geopolitics,trade closeness between countries and other factors,resulting in some trade alliances and groupings.In this thesis,BGLL,the classical algorithm of complex network community division is used to divide the critical mineral resources trade network into communities.The analysis of the evolution trend of the trade network community structure is helpful to control the global trade situation of critical mineral resources,so in this thesis,multiple time slices network community are divided.This thesis divides the trade networks of nickel resources and lithium resources in communities in 2010,2013,2016 and 2019,and analyzes the structural characteristics and evolution characteristics of the international trade network.For further evaluation of countyies’ competitive ability for resources in the background of supply shortage caused by emergent risk,combining the above trade network community division and structure analysis,this thesis used the nodes’ global importance,local importance,dominance of importing country,concentration index and the demand price indices as main factors.The evaluation results will serve as important data support for the simulation analysis in the following part.(3)Starting from the characteristics of international trade in critical mineral resources,this thesis proposed a 3-layer complex network model for the critical mineral resources global trade,and built corresponding risk transmission mechanism based on casacading failure model taking key factors such as trade pattern factors,price factors,supply and demand factors,inputting and output dependence of industrial chain and trade competitiveness among countries into consideration.Therefore,a novel research framework for critical mineral resources security evaluation is built.At last,based on multi scenarios simulation results,the nodes’ resilience results are calculated.(4)Based on the risk simulation research framework of critical mineral resources trade proposed above,the global nickel and lithium resources trade network emergent risk scenario are simulated respectively,main nodes countries’ risk resilience are obtained by log-log linear regression with the multy scenarios simulation results.Finally,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for improving the safety of critical mineral resources in China.The main work of this thesis is evaluating the community pattern and nodes’ resilience of the global trade network of critical mineral resources based on complex network theories.The main innovations are as follows:(1)A novel evaluation method of the nodes’ resource import competitiveness in the global trade network of critical mineral resources under the situation of supply shortage is proposed.(2)A research framework based on simulation deductive for risk assessment of critical mineral resources is constructed.(3)Based on the multi-scenario simulation results of countrioes’ import loss,a new measurement method of nodes’ resilience of critical mineral resource trade network is proposed.