| China's new urbanization process is accelerating,the city scale and gathering population are getting increasingly bigger.At the same time,cities of China are constantly plagued by various types of uncertainties such as earthquakes,waterlogging,fires,windstorms,and infectious diseases.Under the impact of these disasters,the communities as basic components of the city suffered from serious consequences such as casualties,property losses,urban functional failure,and social order imbalance.The Chinese governments have issued a series of policies and regulations,however there is still room for optimization and improvement in urban community disaster prevention and mitigation work.The concept of “resilience” has unique advantages in solving the aforementioned issues.Building resilient communities from the perspective of capital can enhance the ability of society to cope with crises from residential level,and effectively compensate for the limitations of the traditional national top-down disaster management system.Domestic and foreign scholars have done a lot of preliminary research on resilient communities,but on the one hand,the concept and connotation of urban community disaster resilience is still in a state of “hundred schools of thought”.The research framework and mechanism are not completely clarified and unified,and the influencing factors and evaluation indicators are not distinguished reasonably,and lack of pertinence.On the other hand,when measuring and evaluating community resilience,previous studies have insufficient understanding of pre-disaster prediction and post-disaster assessment,and lack of discussion on the interaction between these two concepts.In addition,research ignores the important role of stakeholder actions and performance in improving the community resilience.Therefore,this study introduces the theory of complex ecosystems into the research on the resilience measurement towards urban community disasters in China,according to the process of “concept and connotation analysis-influencing factors identification-evaluation index selection-evaluation method formulation-impact mechanism analysis-resilience simulation prediction-empirical research-disaster adapting strategy proposing”,the issues of post-disaster resilience assessment and pre-disaster resilience prediction in urban communities in China are studied.The specific research content is carried out according to the following steps:(1)Defining the concept,connotation and framework of UCCE disaster adapting resilience in China.First of all,starting from the concept of “community”,introducing the development milestones and organizational structure changes of urban communities in China.Then,based on the theory of complex ecosystem,the urban communities in China are divided into social,economic and natural sub-systems,and the relationship between these three complementary sub-systems is discussed,which lays a foundation for the following evaluation indicators and the division of influencing factors.Furthermore,through literature review and web crawling technology,the typical disasters,and the corresponding characteristics and chain transmission methods of urban communities in China are determined.Furthermore,dividing the disaster adapting stages and major stakeholders of urban communities in China,and summarizing the existing disaster-adapting strategies through domestic and international disaster prevention and mitigation practices.Finally,based on the concept and detailed content of the sustainable livelihood framework,proposing an improved framework for urban community resilience in China.Based on this framework,the “disaster-adapting resilience”,“4R characteristics” and “resilient community disaster-adapting mechanism” are analyzed in turn,and the main research ideas and logical framework of the full text are then formed.(2)Identify the influencing factors of UCCE disaster adapting resilience in ChinaFirst,through the ethnographic research method,deepening into the stakeholder group and using in-depth interviews,free conversations,and round-table exchanges to obtain research materials related to disaster resilience in urban communities.Then,based on the grounded theory,the collected data are sequentially subjected to open coding,spindle coding,selection coding and theoretical saturation test to complete the initial screening of the influencing factors of urban community disaster adapting.Furthermore,the influencing factors were screened by expert questionnaire + principal component analysis(PCA).Finally,through the reliability and validity test,the key influencing factors of the resilience of urban communities in China are determined.(3)Determining the evaluation factors of UCCE disaster adapting resilience in China,and establishing measurement and analysis method of the post-disaster resilience.Firstly,the selection principle of the indicators are determined.Through the systematic literature review method(SLR),92 articles related to the evaluation of community disaster-adapting resilience are retrieved and extracted from the mainstream databases including Web of science,Elsevier and CNKI.Then,through the screening of word frequency statistical software and expert questionnaire,initially obtained a total of 34 secondary indicators within3 dimensions.Secondly,based on the Analytic Network Process(ANP),the comparison matrix between indicators is established,the relationship strength is determined,the consistency of the test matrix is obtained,and the intra-group weights and inter-group weights of each indicator are got.20 evaluation indicators are selected through the established rules.Finally,based on the PROMETHEE II decision-making method,the measurement methods and metrics of urban community disaster adapting resilience are established,and the results are analyzed by the importance-performance analysis(IPA)method.(4)Verifying the mechanism between the influencing and evaluation factors of UCCE disaster adapting resilience in China.Firstly,based on the structural equation model,a hypothetical model for the impact mechanism of urban community disaster adapting resilience in China is established.Secondly,through the Likert scale,scoring and summarizing the resilience-related issues in the questionnaire.Furthermore,descriptive statistical analysis,reliability analysis,validity analysis,and correlation analysis are performed on the acquired samples to ensure the rationality of the setting and scoring of the items.Finally,testing the fitting degree of the structural equation model to determine whether the assumption between each influencing factor and the evaluation index is true and whether the linear relationship is significant,which lays a theoretical foundation for the subsequent simulation.(5)Establishing the measurement and improvement model of UCCE disaster adapting resilience in China.Firstly,taking the waterlogging disaster as an example,the BP neural network module in Matlab software is used to establish the UCCE resilience prediction model.Secondly,through the target sample data in Chapter 5,the simulation training is carried out in the BP neural network.The potential relationship between the influencing factors and the evaluation indicators is established through the operation in the hidden layer.The training results of BP neural network are tested by using the reserved samples.Then,based on the social network analysis(SNA)method,through the relationship strength matrix among the community disaster prevention and mitigation stakeholders,the 4R features such as rapidity,robustness,redundancy and resourcefulness of community disaster-adapting resilience are quantitatively calculated in UCINET software.It lays the foundation for the subsequent empirical research and the enhancement of resilience.(6)Conducting empirical research before and after disasters to develop an improvement strategy of resilience for target communities.The empirical research in this paper can be divided into two parts: post-disaster evaluation and pre-disaster prediction.The first part takes four typical urban communities in Nanjing as an example.Through the impact of the waterlogging disaster on the community in June 2017,the PROMETHEE II method is used to quantitatively calculate the resilience after the disasters.Then,the results are analyzed through IPA to find the advantages and disadvantages of the community.The second part is still based on the cases of above four communities.Firstly,based on the existing disaster adapting capital and demographic characteristics(influencing factors)of the community,predicting the potential resilience of four communities under the waterlogging disaster likely caused by the typhoon “Litchma” in August 2019.At the same time,according to the social network relationship and intensity of the community,calculating the 4R characteristics of the whole community and the stakeholders.Finally,the two parts of the results are matched to the corresponding stakeholders and influencing factors.The incentive and constraint mechanism design theory is used to provide the resilience improvement strategies for the communities and stakeholders,as well as to provide experience for other urban communities in China. |
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