From Potential To Reality

Tourism market is an ongoing research theme concerned by both the tourism academia and tourism industry.It is vital to the development of destination.For any tourism destination,whether potential tourism markets can be successfully conversed into real tourism markets is related to its sustainable development.Consequently,Destination Marketing Organizations(DMOs)invest a lot of money to carry out various marketing activities to attract tourists.With the efforts of marketing,how many potential markets can eventually be conversed into real markets?What is the conversion process from potential tourism markets to real tourism markets and what are the main influencing factors?What should DMO do in order to converse more potential markets into real tourism markets?These are important practical problems faced by both the tourism academia and the industry.Previous studies on tourism market were mostly destination-centric,and focused on the real tourism market.By contrast,the potential tourism market has not received sufficient attention.To date,there are few literatures on the conversion of potential tourism markets based on origin-centric.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the conversion from potential tourism markets to real tourism markets.On the one hand,it can enrich and deepen the research content of tourism market,which has important theoretical value.On the other hand,it can provide decision-making basis for tourism marketing,which has important practical value.Foundation on the theory of tourists' destination selection process,the concept of tourism market conversion was proposed.The total conversion process from potential tourism markets to real tourism markets was divided into three stages:the first stage is the conversion from unawareness market(persons who unwareness the destination)to awareness market(persons who knows the name of the destination),the second stage is the conversion from awareness market to desire market(persons who want to visit the destination),and the last stage is the conversion from desire market to real market(persons who actually visit the destination).In order to quantitatively measure the conversion degree of tourism markets,the indexes of total conversion rate and three stage conversion rates were adopted.Total conversion rate was used to measure the conversion degree from potential tourism market to real tourism market.Stage conversion rate includes awareness conversion rate,desire conversion rate and action conversion rate.Among them,awareness conversion rate was used to measure the conversion degree from unawareness market to awareness market,desire conversion rate was used to measure the conversion degree from awareness market to desire market,and action conversion rate was used to measure the conversion degree from desire market to real market.For comprehensive exploration of tourism market conversion rate,this dissertation from an origin-centric tourism system perspective,taking Beijing,Wuhan,Xi'an,and Chengdu as the origin cities and selecting some of the Grade 5A,Grade 4A,and landmark scenic spots as the target destinations,the residents of Beijing,Wuhan,Xi'an,and Chengdu were interviewed to answer whether they had heard about,desired to and visited the target destinations.From October 2017 to August 2019,a total of 6180 questionnaires were distributed to residents in four cities,and 5620 valid questionnaires were returned(90.94%response rate).Based on the respondents' answers,the total conversion rate and the three stage conversion rate were calculated.Then the main factors affecting the tourism market conversion and its mechanism were analyzed.Finally,a model to calculate the total conversion rate was proposed.The main conclusions are as flollows:(1)Total conversion rate of the tourism market is influenced by the combination of awareness conversion rate,desire conversion rate and action conversion rate.The higher the product of the three stage conversion rate,the higher the total conversion rate will be.The case study shows that total conversion rate is positively correlated with each stage conversion rate,and the result of fitting data relating to total conversion rate and each stage conversion rate are all exponential curves.Total conversion rate shows an accelerated growth trend with the improvement of stage conversion rate.When stage conversion rate is low,the total conversion rate increases slowly;when stage conversion rate is high,the total conversion rate increases rapidly.Statistics suggest that the average value of total conversion rate is 16.86%,the average value of awareness conversion rate is 54.94%,the average value of desire conversion rate is 60.07%,and the average value of action conversion rate is 44.91%.Total conversion rate was significantly lower than that of stage conversion rate.In the stage conversion rate,the average value of desire conversion rate is the highest,followed by awareness conversion rate,and action conversion rate is obviously the lowest.Thus the conversion from desire market to real market is the most difficult,and the low action conversion rate restricts the total conversion rate.(2)Conversion rate affects the structure of the tourism market,and forms three typical market structures of "upright pyramid type","transitional type" and "inverted pyramid type".The structure of the tourism market follows the evolution of upright pyramid type?transitional type?inverted pyramid type.If 1-awareness conversion rate>awareness conversion rate-awareness conversion rate x desire conversion rate>awareness conversion rate × desire conversion rate-total conversion rate>total conversion rate,the market structure is positive pyramid.If awareness conversion rate=3/4,desire conversion rate=2/3,and action conversion rate=1/2,the market structure is transitional.If total conversion rate>awareness conversion rate x desire conversion rate-total conversion rate>awareness conversion rate-awareness conversion rate ×desire conversion rate>1-awareness conversion rate,the market structure is inverted pyramid.(3)Total conversion rate follows the law of distance decay.This is a comprehensive result of the influence of distance on the three stage conversion rate.The case study shows that the influence of distance on different stage conversion rate varies.Desire conversion rate is the least affected by distance.Except that the average value of desire conversion rate in the close range is relatively high,the average values of the intentionalization rates in the other distance intervals differ little.Awareness conversion rate is also slightly affected by distance.In general,it follows the law of distance decay,but just a small decline.Action conversion rate is greatly affected by distance.With the increase of the distance,it decline obviously.Consequently,the effect of distance on action conversion rate is the main factor leading to the decline of total conversion rate with distance.In addition,it should be noted that the effect of different types distance on conversion rates are diverse.Overall,time distance has the greatest influence on conversion rate,followed by traffic distance and spherical distance,and economic distance has the least influence on conversion rate.(4)Conversion rate varied depending on the location and administrative level of the destination.Comparing the average conversion rate of scenic spots located in the eastern,central and western China,it is found that the average of total conversion rate and each stages conversion rate of scenic spots in the eastern region are all higher than those in the central and western regions.The average awareness conversion rate of scenic spots in the central and western regions is very close,but both the average desire conversion rate and the average action conversion rate of scenic spots in the western region are higher than that in the central region,which makes the average total conversion rate of scenic spots in the western region slightly higher than that in the central region.The regional difference of conversion rate at different stages is discrepant,the regional difference of awareness conversion rate is the smallest,followed by desire conversion rate,and the regional difference of action conversion rate is the largest.Comparing the average the average conversion rate of scenic spots located in different administrative levels city,it is found that the higher the administrative level of the city,the greater the average conversion rate of its scenic spots.In comparison,the impact of city administrative level on total conversion rate and action conversion rate is greater than that of desire conversion rate and awareness conversion rate.(5)Total conversion rate is the result of interaction between the origin and destination.It can be calculated by the model,which composed of five independent variables:the attractiveness of a destination,the travel time from a origin to the destination,the traffic expense to and from the destination,the physical fatigue travel time and the per capita disposable monthly income of the origin.The model is dynamic,and these five independent variables each have a physical meaning and change with the development of society.DMOs can predict changes to any of the five independent variables in advance,and then forecast the futhure total conversion rate.The main innovations are as follows:(1)This dissertation defines the concept of tourism market conversion,divides the total conversion process from potential tourism market to real tourism market into three stages,and puts forward the indexes of total conversion rate and three stage conversion rate—awareness conversion rate,desire conversion rate and action conversion rate.(2)This dissertation reveals the main influencing factors and mechanism of the total conversion rate,and constructs a model to calculate total conversion rate,which is composed of five independent variables:the attractiveness of a destination,the travel time from a origin to the destination,the traffic expense to and from the destination,the physical fatigue travel time and the per capita disposable monthly income of the origin.