The Impact Of Land Market Development On The Expansion Of Urban Construction Land

Since the reform and opening up in 1978,China has become one of the countries with the fastest urbanization rate in the world.With the promotion of industrialization and urbanization,the rapid growth of construction land has increased from 6720 km2 in 1981 to 49982.74 km2 in 2014 with the average annual growth of 1311km2;The average coefficient of the city-population expansion elasticity is 1.71,indicating that the land expansion rate is significantly faster than the population growth rate.The rapid expansion of land for construction has become the main feature of land use change in China for a long period of time and even in the future.The excessive expansion of urban construction land has led to a large loss of cultivated land.From 1980 to 2010,about 3.18×106 hm2 was occupied by land for construction,accounting for the 57.61%of the increased land for construction purposes.The land area of the Yangtze River Economic Belt accounts for 21.35%of the country.In 2015,its population and economic aggregate accounted for 42.75%and 44.52%of the country respectively,and urban construction land accounted for 41.27%of the country,which shows that the belt has a large population and economic density with high land development intensity.As the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt rises to a new regional strategic level,its development will increase the demand for urban land.With the acceleration of urbanization,the conflicts between population and land will intensify,the tight land constraints will be the norm phenomina in future,and the contradiction between supply and demand for construction land is very prominent.The intensive utilization of urban land is an inevitable choice under China’s realistic contradictions.As the basic mode of resource allocation,the improvement of the level of land marketization is conducive to optimizing the effective allocation of land resources and increasing the level of land intensive use.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the research on the impact of land market development on urban land use,especially on the expansion of urban construction land,and comprehensively and systematically reveal the impact mechanism of land market development on the expansion of urban construction land and the ways in which it can function.This has the effect of guiding the rational expansion of urban construction land.In this paper,core cities of three city groups were selected as research areas,that is Shanghai of the Yangtze River delta,Wuhan of the middle Yangtze River and Chongqing of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Belt.Based on the discussion of the impact of land market development on the expansion of urban construction land,the spatial distribution of land market,the phased characteristics of urban construction land expansion are specially focused with their correlation were analyzed.Moreover,econometric models,Geographic Weighted Regression model(GWR)and logistic regression models were constructed using the land use data and land market related data,which in turn testing the way and impact of land markets development on the construction land expansion from urban,country and microscale levels.Results are as follows:(1)At the theoretical level,the city,county,and land patch-scale land markets have been built to influence the expansion of urban construction land and the channels of action,revealing the expansion of urban construction land by land markets of different scales.The influencing mechanism is specifically:city and county level.It focuses on the scale of land supply,land supply price and land marketization level,which have impact on the expansion of urban construction land,and reveals the impact mechanism of land market development on the expansion of urban construction land;land patch,at the same time,mainly discussed the impact of scale,intensity,price and mode of land patch transfer on urban construction land expansion,and revealed the impact mechanism of land market spatial distribution on urban construction land expansion.(2)The spatial distribution of the land market in the study area has obvious patterns.From the perspective of land supply use,the sale of residential and commercial land is mainly supplied in the form of small parcels in the central areas of the city while supplied in bulk in the periphery area.The industrial land supply became suburbanization and concentrated in development zones.The spatial distribution of supply prices for residential,commercial,and industrial lands all exhibit a clear multi-center distribution with the land prices show a cyclical decline from high-value centers and secondary centers to gradually peripheral areas,though protrusions and jumps appear in the spatial decay.For the source of land supply,Shanghai’s land supply is based on incremental land supply,while Wuhan and Chongqing still rely on incremental land supply.The expansion of urban construction land in the study area has obvious regional differences and phase characteristics.Shanghai’s urban expansion generally exhibits the characteristics of rapid expansion,high-speed expansion,and slow expansion.Wuhan exhibits the characteristics of gradual expansion,rapid expansion,and high-speed expansion.Chongqing,on the other hand,is characterized by a slow expansion to a high-speed expansion with the city’s high-speed expansion area gradually shifts from east to west.The pattern of urban expansion in different stages is constantly changing.Shanghai’s urban expansion is gradually dominated by marginal expansion and infill expansion from the previous marginal expansion.Wuhan and Chongqing are still dominated by marginal and enclave expansion.The development of land market is obviously related to urban expansion with the direction of urban expansion following the direction of land supply.The sale price of "commercial land price>residential land price>industrial land price" has a significant impact on the spatial adjustment of urban land,for example,small parcel supply can easily lead to fragmentation of urban land space and loose spatial structure.Finally,there is a negative correlation between the level of land marketization and the increase of urban land use.(3)The empirical results of the urban scale show that the impact of the land market on the expansion of urban construction land is different among different cities.The specific performance is:From the perspective of land supply,the scale of land supply in Shanghai,Wuhan,and Chongqing will play a role in the expansion of urban construction land,that is the increase in land supply will promote the continuous expansion of urban construction land.In terms of land transfer prices,land transfer prices in Shanghai and Wuhan will have a certain restrained effect on the expansion of urban construction land.If the land transfer price increases by 10,000 yuan each,the scale of urban construction land expansion will decrease by 0.047 hm2 and 0.226 hm2 respectively.The land transfer price in Chongqing does not play a role in inhibiting the expansion of urban construction land.In terms of land marketization,the level of Shanghai’s land marketization has no obvious effect on the expansion of urban construction land;Wuhan’s land marketization level has a tendency to inhibit the expansion of urban construction land,but its inhibitory effect is not significant;Land marketization inhibit the expansion of urban construction land in Chongqing with every 1%increase in the level of land marketization will inhibit the conversion of 0.0009 hm2 of land to urban construction land.However,from the perspective of regression coefficients,the level of land marketization has little restraining effect on the expansion of urban construction land.(4)The empirical results of the county scale in Chongqing show that the impact of the land market on the expansion of urban construction land has obvious spatial differentiation.In terms of land supply scale,the elasticity coefficient of land supply scale is positive,which indicates that the increase in land transfer scale promotes the expansion of urban construction land;the elasticity coefficient of land transfer scale is generally declined gradually from the northeast to the southwest.With regard to land transfer prices,the impact of land transfer prices on the expansion of urban construction land has a "two-way" effect.In the northeastern regions of Wushan,Fengjie,Yunyang,Chengkou,Kaixian,and Wanzhou,the elasticity coefficient is between-0.0892 and-0.0051,indicating that the impact of the land transfer price on the expansion of urban construction land will slow down the impact.The elasticity coefficients of land sales prices in other districts and counties are all positive,indicating that the increase in land transfer prices has not only no effects in preventting the expansion of urban construction land,but also promoted the growth of urban construction land.With respect to the level of land marketization,the increase in the marketization level of the land market has affected the expansion of urban construction land,and has both suppressing and promoting effects.The elastic coefficients of Xiushan,Youyang,and Qianjiang indicated that the increase in the level of land marketization had a certain mitigation effect on the expansion of urban construction land,but from the perspective of elasticity,the suppression effect was not obvious.The elasticity coefficient of land marketization in the other districts and counties is positive,indicating that the increase in the level of land marketization has not played a role in curbing the expansion of urban construction land.(5)The empirical results of the county-scale show that:The land patchtransfer characteristics and spatial distribution of the land have a significant impact on the expansion of urban construction land,but the degree of impact varies from city to city.The specific performance is as follows:With regard to the area of land transfer,the increase in the area of land patch transfer in Shanghai,Wuhan and Chongqing will play an important role in the expansion of urban construction land.For each increase of 1 hm2 of land patch area,the probability of urban space expansion increases to 1.096,1.031,and 1.014,respectively.In land sales,small parcels are mainly distributed within the city and are mainly stocked with land.Urban sprawl does not occur or rarely occur within the city.The bulk of the land used for land sales is mainly concentrated on the urban fringe and suburbs which are the main area where space has expanded.In terms of land transfer price,the land patch transfer price will play a certain role in inhibiting the expansion of urban construction land.For every 10,000 yuan increase in land price,the probability of expansion of urban construction land in Shanghai,Wuhan,and Chongqing will decrease to half.On the scale of land parcels,the effect of transfer price on the expansion of urban construction land will not differ greatly from city to city.In terms of the strength of land sales,the impact of land sales intensity on the expansion of urban construction land has significant differences among different cities.The increase in the intensity of land patch transfer in Shanghai and Chongqing will have an inhibitory effect on the expansion of urban construction land;for every 1 unit increase in land transfer intensity,the probability of expansion of urban construction land will decrease by approximately 0.75 times and 0.61 times,respectively;The increase in the intensity of land patch transfer does not have a significant inhibitory effect on the expansion of urban construction land in Wuhan.In terms of land transfer mode,Shanghai,Wuhan and Chongqing all show that the closer the distance is from the land plot granting to residential,commercial and industrial plots,the greater the probability of urban space expansion.The urban construction land is mainly expanded with the transfer of land as the center,and construction land expansion follows the direction of land supply.(6)The empirical research shows that there are scale effect on the three scales of cities,counties and plots.For cities and county scales,the impact of land market is the key factor affecting the expansion of construction land.On the plot scale,the size of the plot,the price of the plot,the strength of the plot and the plot of the plot to transfer have an impact on the expansion of urban construction land.The impact of urban construction land expansion has commonalities and differences among the three scales of urban,county and parcel.On one hand,the impact of the scale of land supply on the expansion of urban construction land has played a role in promoting the three scales of cities,counties and plots.On the other hand,the impact of land transfer price on urban construction land expansion has a "two-way" effect at the city and county scales while has a restraining effect on urban construction land expansion on the land plots scale,though the inhibition effect has little difference between different cities.