Why Do The Most Technologies Fail To Become Adaptive Technology?

As technology has gradually become the decisive factor in determining the high quality growth in a country or region,the technological selection that are an important part of the technological development process have increasingly become the focus of academics and government departments.In the reallity economic life,on the one hand,the most of technologies are rapidly "aborted",and only a handful of technologies can survive.On the other hand,the market selections of technology sometimes form a paradox with the economic theory,that is,efficient technologies are eliminated and inefficient technologies survive.This shows that the technological choice determines which technology in the individual group can be selected by the market and become adaptive technology.After sorting out the existing literature on technical problems,it is found that the research on technology mainly focuses on technological variation and technology diffusion.However,there is little literature about technology selection and there is still a "black box" about it.Therefore,based on the frontiers of evolutionary economics,this paper tries to probe into the mechanism of the market's effect on technology selection.This not only provides some reference for how to choose adaptive technologies from the many technologies produced by the new round of technological change,but also enriches the theoretical discussions in economics on the choice of technologies.This paper firstly constructs the kinetic equation of technology selection by referring to Fisher's principle in evolutionary economics,and holds the opinion that technological choice is a process of survival of the fittest.That is,the technology individual with rapid growth is competed in the market to become adaptive technology,and slow-growing technology individuals are eliminated by the market.So differentiated technology growth rate has become the key of technological choice.The technological growth rate is determined by the mutual matching of the technology's own characteristics and the market's demand characteristics.The characteristics of the technology itself refer to its production efficiency,its spillover and its product features(price,quality and contained knowledge).The market demand for technology is characterized by two aspects.On the one hand,the direct demand for technology by the supply-side enterprises.That is,according to the characteristics of the technology market competition and its organizational routines,the enterprises choose technology.On the other hand,demand-side consumer indirect demand for technology,that is,according to their consumer preferences which are replacement of products cost and revenue comparison,consumers choose the technology that brings their own effectiveness to maximize.The factors of supply-side and demand-side together determine the growth rate of a technology in the technical individual groups,and form a mechanism for the selection of adaptive technologies.Through the construction of the technology selection and the numerical simulation of the above theory,the relevant conclusions of the technology selection under the single-dimensional heterogeneity and the technology selection under the multi-dimensional heterogeneity are obtained as follows.The results of technology selection under the single-dimensional heterogeneity of technology with only the difference in production cost or product quality are as follows:First,if the production cost is lower than the average level of the individual technology group,the market share of the technology will increase,and the individual with the lowest production cost will become an adaptive technology.The market share of technology will decline and be eliminated by the market.Second,the results of technological choices under single-dimension heterogeneity depend on the level of net income obtained by consumers when they replace high-quality products.In other words,when the net income of consumers replacing high-quality products is positive,the technology that produces high-quality product will become adaptive technology,and other technologies will be eliminated from the market.When the net of consumers replacing high-quality products is negative,the technology of the low-quality products produced will become adaptive technology.When the net of consumers replacing high-quality products is zero,the diversity of the individual technology groups will not change.Third,the trend of technological individual group structure changes from diversity to unity;and the variance of the technical individual group's characteristics(production cost or product quality),product(technology)market competition and technology individual group structure change rate are proportional.The results of technology selection under the heterogeneity of multidimensional technology with different production cost and product quality are as follows:First,when the net of consumers replacing high-quality products is non-negative or negative within a certain range,the share of technology with a positive production cost advantage and positive product quality advantage will increase,and the technology with the highest production cost and quality advantage in the individual technology group will become the adaptive technology.When the net of the consumers replacing high-quality products is negative and reaches a certain degree,the share of technology with positive production cost advantages and positive product quality advantages in the technical individual group will decline and it will be eliminated by the market.At the same time,when the net income absolute value is higher,the rate of expansion(contraction)of the technology market is faster.Second,when the net from the replacement of high-quality products by consumers is non-positive or positive in a certain range,the share of technology with low-quality products and low-cost advantages will increase,and the technology with the lowest production quality and lowest production cost in the individual group eventually becomes adaptive technology.Only when the net income of consumers replacing high-quality products is positive and reaches a certain level,the share of technology with low-quality products and low cost advantages in the technical individual group will decline and eventually be eliminated by the market.At the same time,the higher the net income absolute value,the faster the rate of expansion(contraction)of the technology market.Thirdly,only when the net income of consumers replacing high-quality products is positive and reaches a certain level,the share of technology with high-quality products and high-cost will rise,and it will become adaptive technologies.When the net income of consumers replacing high-quality products is not positive or positive within a certain range,the share of technology with high-quality products and high cost characteristics in the technical individual group will decline and be eliminated by the market.At the same time,the higher the net income absolute value,the faster the technologies will change.Fourth,when the net income of consumers replacing high-quality products is negative and reaches a certain level,the technology that produces low-quality products and has high-cost features will increase its share in the technical individual group,and the technology will become adaptive technology.When the net income of consumers when replacing high-quality products is non-negative or negative within a certain range,the share of technology with low-quality products and high cost in the technical individual group will decline.At the same time,the higher the net income absolute value,the faster the rate of expansion(contraction)of the technology market.Fifth,under multi-dimensional heterogeneity,the speed of structural change of individual technological groups depends on the structure of the technological market(product market structure).In other words,the more complete the competition of technological markets(product markets),the faster the speed of weight changes of individual technical members in the group of technologies.The higher the degree of monopoly in the technology market(product market),the slower the rate of the weight changes of individual technical members in the technical group.