Research On The Labor Supply Of Retired People In Urban Areas

With the development of science and technology and the progress of medical treatment in the 21^st century,the average life expectancy of human beings has been continuously extended,and the aging of population has become a major issue facing the social and economic development of all countries in the world.China has also quietly ushered in the arrival of the aging society while maintaining the rapid economic development trend.In 2017,China fully released the"two-child policy",but with an unexpected dull response,the birth rate fell instead of rising in the year of 2018 and2019.Therefore,along with seeking to solve the problem of labor shortage by adding new labor population,we have to solve another key problem,that is,to pay attention to the supply of labor for the elderly.The purpose of this study is to predict the feasibility and possible practical problems of comprehensively implementing the policy of postponing retirement in China and try to put forward countermeasures and suggestions by describing the current situation of the labor supply of the urban elderly and empirical analysis of the influencing factors of market-oriented labor decision-making and its welfare effect after retirement.The core content of this study is as follows.First of all,the present situation of labor supply for the elderly in China is described statistically.Based on the macro data for our aging society under the background of the old situation,structure characteristics and the future trend of the labor involved in several aspects of the overall description,using the micro data from the perspective of short-term labor supply scale change,the paper focus on analyzing the change of the retired elderly population in cities and towns in our country labor participation rate and subjective will,labor force participation proved mining the necessity and feasibility of urban elderly human resource in our country.Secondly,the paper analyzes the influencing factors and the action mechanism of the re-employment decision of the urban elderly after retirement.Based on the data of China Health and Pension Tracking Survey(CHARLS),the standardized coefficient method and joint choice model(BPM)were adopted from the perspectives of personal factors and family factors to conduct empirical tests on the influencing ways and paths of various factors affecting the labor participation decision of the elderly.In addition,combining with the actual policy situation in China,this paper made use of the externality conditions created by the pension system reform in China's government offices and public institutions in 2015,and adopted the propensity score matching method(PSM-DID)to analyze the changes of the expected work willingness of the elderly labor under the influence of social factors.Finally,Using the data of China Household Tracking Survey(CFPS)in 2018,the data of age employment in different industries of provinces of the sixth census in 2010and the statistical yearbook of provinces in 2011,the empirical analysis of social welfare effect was carried out by using Shapley value decomposition and panel data fixed effect model.Individual welfare effect,mainly using the CHARLS data in 2013and 2015,using Fuzzy breakpoint regression(Fuzzy RD)and order probability Model(Ordered Probit Model)analysis method such as market-oriented labor supply decisions for the elderly individual welfare effect of its own perception factors,respectively from the influence of the objective cognitive health behavior of the elderly labor force participation and influence subjective well-being of the elderly to examine two angles.Through the theoretical analysis and empirical test of the above content,the following four research conclusions are drawn.First,based on the statistical description of the development status of the elderly labor force in China,it is found that from 2010 to 2017 the proportion of the elderly labor force aged 65 and above in China has been increasing,and the proportion of the elderly labor force in the tertiary industry is higher and the employment mode is more flexible.According to the analysis results of health factors,the elderly in urban areas generally have better health status and still have strong working ability when they retire,and the retirement behavior has a significant negative impact on the cognitive function of the elderly women.These findings show that the elderly urban labor force in China can become an important resource that cannot be ignored to deal with the shortage of labor force in the aging society in the future.Secondly,there is great heterogeneity in the formation mechanism within the rehired group.According to the breakpoint regression results of the influence of retirement events on the objective cognitive ability of the elderly,the cognitive ability of the female retired elderly presents a significant downward trend.As the main undertaker of family care,their labor participation behavior affected by intergeneration care-demand is particularly significant.The influence of family factors on the male elderly is less,and the heterogeneity results are more obvious at different income levels and education levels.This suggests that we should fully consider the characteristics of the elderly's family and social roles in the design of the policy of postponing retirement,encourage elderly people to actively participate in social work,and avoid them being overworked or falling into the"double dilemma"between family care and social work.Third,the employment-friendly legal and policy environment for the retired in China is not perfect.The current policy has no relevant provisions and restrictions on the re-employment of the retired elderly.Early retirement and the existence of pension transfer payment cause the normal operation of the labor market distorted to a certain extent.In some industries,the employment of the elderly even presents a certain"crowding out effect"on the employment of the young.This requires us to further refine the policy for the re-employment of retirees and provide a good policy environment for the rational use and development of elderly human resources.Fourth,there are certain labor risks for the elderly under the current system.When discussing the subjective feelings of the rehired elderly,it is found that the labor participation has a significant negative influence on the life satisfaction index,which is more strongly reflected in the elderly female group.From the mechanism test results,it is other factors other than health that lead to the negative results of labor participation,among which income and leisure factors show the channel effect.This suggests that we should pay attention to the physical and mental health of the elderly,and reasonably set the working time and salary level of the elderly in order to protect the re-employment of the elderly workers.This paper focus on the labor supply inner motivation among the most complex retired elderly population in cities and towns.Their cognitive ability index and individual perception factors such as subjective well-being are discussed on the basis of the traditional economics of labor supply analysis.The influence factors of retired elderly labor supply and welfare effect are analyzed on the premise of controlling the impact of endogenous with the application of the current economics research methods.This paper not only enriches the relevant research on the supply of elderly labor in China,but also broadens the thinking for the development of the grey-hair human resources in China under the background of aging.The author hopes that this study will contribute to the in-depth research on the supply of elderly labor in China and provide intellectual support for coping with the structural shortage of labor force in a severely aging society in the future.