Research On The Chinese New Residential Building Energy Efficiency Promotion Mid-/Long-term Roadmap And Policy Package Development

China's rapid population growth and urbanization over the past two decades have led to a significant energy consumption increase in residential building sector.Confronted with the rapid growth of building energy consumption,China has introduced a series of policies and achieved good results.However,the urbanization rate in China in 2030 will reach 70%.How to systematically set the roadmap for new residential building energy efficiency promotion in China,formulate technology strategies and corresponding policies will be crucial to the future energy efficiency improvement of residential buildings.To this end,this research introduced the SIX-SIGMA DMAIC method to construct the overall research methodology.The research firstly focused on the definition.By introducing the Delphi method,this paper also explored the roadmap of new residential building energy efficiency promotion targets.The corresponding technology strategy and key technologies were analyzed and verified by building energy consumption simulation and sensitivity analysis.This research introduced the policy cycle theory,the nested policy design theory and the policy environment theory to systematically evaluate and analyze the obstacles,influencing factors and drivers in this field.The evaluation was based on the data extracted from nationwide large-scale institutional questionnaires and the Delphi questionnaire distributed to the first-line experts.The Likert 5-Scale was introduced for quantifying the assessing process.The descriptional statistical analysis,the hierarchical analysis,and the cluster analysis method were used for data processing and the conclusions obtained were verified by the facts in this field in China up to date.This research also developed a policy system to promote the energy efficiency level of new residential buildings.The development of individual policy aims to address those key issues identified in the research process.The assessment of the effectiveness of an individual policy is based on the scoring given by the experts.After screening out the policies with low effectiveness,the research formed the comprehensive policy system.The rationality of the system was evaluated based on the theory of nested policy design theory and policy resources theory.The results indicate that the definition of energy efficiency improvement for new residential buildings should be clarified.The energy efficiency level of new residential buildings should be increased by 30% every five years since 2020.The technical strategy to achieve this series of energy efficiency goals is “passive technology priority plus renewable energy assistance”.Current core obstacle is that “the expected energy savings cannot be effectively converted into actual energy-saving benefits”.This is the result of the lack of government policy design and its implementation,the lack of implementation capacity of stakeholders,and the relatively low level of legalization of the relevant markets.Analysis of the influencing factors provides a preliminary solution to the elimination of obstacles.The impact of policy factors will decline in the long run,and market factors will occupy a dominant position affecting the energy efficiency of new residential buildings.This change emphasizes the importance of government administrative measures,and that the government should begin to comprehensively use policy resources to establish a good market order.The results of the driver analysis show that residents' demand for a more comfortable living environment is the driving force for the government.Financial subsidies and the “local government performance assessment system” can effectively transform the needs of residents into the actual driving force for local governments to promote their work.In a word,the conclusions of each part provide a sound theoretical basis for policy formulation and provide practical policy recommendations.