Study On The Intertemporal Configuration Of Foil Energy

Energy,as an important material for human beings,plays a significant role in promoting the social development.China had relied on the massive investment of fossil energy to support the rapid economic growth.In the meanwhile,this phenomenon also brought the serious pollution,and the environmental bearing capacity was close to the threshold.In addition,energy shortage and environmental pollution were essential issues that need to be solved in the process of China’s economic development.The substitution of new energy can effectively solve the environmental and intergenerational externalities caused by fossil energy consumption,which was a vital approach to obtain sustainable development of energy.This paper aims to solve the problem of intertemporal optimal configuration of fossil energy under new energy substitution,and it also focuses on clarify the influencing mechanism of new energy substitution on fossil energy configuration path.Firstly,the situation and trend of fossil energy and new energy consumption were sorted ou.The proportion of new energy consumption will increase gradually and the energy consumption was slowing down.The proportion of coal consumption will continue to decline.By means of the fractional grey prediction method,it was found that the proportion of coal consumption in China will decrease to less than 50% by2027.New energy sources contribute more to economic growth than fossil fuels,while there was downward pressure on energy efficiency.The improved BASS model showed that the peak value of energy consumption in China was about 57.15 billion tons standard coal.Then,it has revealed that the influence of new energy substitution on fossil energy extraction path was studied at the micro aspect,including the price of new energy,discount,the scale of new energy substitution and the level of new energy technology.(1)Under the conditions of new energy substitution and environmental constraints,the optimal exploitation path of fossil energy was discussed by using the optimization method.Environmental externality and scarcity drive up energy prices,and were substituted completely after approaching the price of new energy.(2)A multi-subject fossil energy exploitation model with new energy substitution was established by game analysis and the influence of the scale of new energy substitution,mining cost and the number of enterprises on the profit of the enterprises were studied.It was found that there exists an optimal mining structure,which can maximize the average profit of followers.What’s more,the influence of new energy substitution on industry income was smaller than the cost factor and mining structure factor.(3)By stochastic optimization method,this paper analyzed and discussed the effects of the uncertainty of discount rate,the uncertainty of fossil energy reserves and the uncertainty of new energy technology on the mining path.This essay also found that the uncertainty of discount rate reduced the expected change rate of energy price,but the ad valorem resource tax was not affected by it.(4)The optimal switching from fossil energy to new energy was studied,by stochastic optimization method,the uncertainty of fossil energy reserves and new energy technology will influence the exploration path of fossil energy.At the energy substitution node,the higher uncertainty of fossil energy reserves and conversion cost of reserves,the later the alternative node appears,the higher the resource tax and new energy technology level,the earlier the substitution node appears.Furthermore,considering the perspective of macroeconomic growth,this paper discussed the impact of new energy substitution on fossil energy depletion path and economic growth path.A two stages economic growth model supported by fossil energy and new energy was established in terms of two phase dynamic optimization theory,and the economic growth and pollution stock change path were also analyzed.At the substitution nodes,the economic growth path displayed the characteristics of "jumping".Factors had a significant effect on the replacement node,such as the rate of technological progress,pollution control level and pollution elasticity of output.In the end,this paper conducted an empirical test and discussed the influence of new energy substitution,economic growth,environmental regulation and energy technology progress on fossil energy consumption through cointegration analysis and time series regression.The peak consumption of fossil energy and the potential of coal energy-saving were predicted.The results found that environmental regulation can control the consumption of fossil energy,and the intersectional impact between new energy and energy technological progress had significant inhibiting effect on fossil energy consumption.Under the influence of new energy substitution and environmental regulation,the peak of fossil energy consumption was a event in the short term.Besides,the reduction of the consumption of coal resources will not affect the economic growth,and the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction of coal was significant.The thesis is inclusive of 61 figures,25 tables and 173 references.