| China's urbanization construction has made remarkable achievements.By 2018,the proportion of urban population in China has reached 59.58%.However,in the context of rapid urbanization,the continuous expansion of large cities,urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas coexists with the continuous outflow of some urban population.Urban contraction is the inevitable law of historical development,and also the product of the rapid urbanization and the decline of population growth rate in China.Under the background of the new era,the comprehensive reform of our society has entered a critical stage.The economy has changed from high-speed growth to high-quality growth,and national strategies such as new urbanization and Rural Revitalization have been successively introduced.Shrinking urban governance has become an important starting point for transforming the development mode,upgrading the economic industry,transforming the growth momentum and building a modern economic system.The main contradiction of society has been transformed into the contradiction between people's growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development.How to effectively control urban contraction has become an important platform to meet the people's pursuit of a better life and build a fair development of local areas,which has an important strategic significance for the realization of building a well-off society in an all-round way and harmonious development of society.However,the city is complex,dynamic and diverse.Urban contraction is the evolutionary behavior of the interaction between the internal and external factors of the complex system and the environment.It is faced with the influence of many factors,such as economy,society,system,law and the change of the macro environment of the city at the regional and even national level.The governance of shrinking city is a complex system engineering,and the research on the mechanism of urban contraction evolution is the necessary prerequisite for effective governance of urban contraction.In this context,it is a necessary and important proposition to reveal the formation process of various blocking factors involved in the process of urban contraction evolution,to explore the mechanism of urban contraction state change,to deconstruct the core mechanism of urban contraction evolution,and to summarize the key parameters of urban contraction evolution in order to establish a scientific and reasonable mechanism design to effectively regulate urban contraction.In view of this,based on the characteristics of the city itself and its shrinking evolution,this paper follows two main lines:(1)Keep the integrity of things,grasp the effective part,summarize the key core,and solve the practical problems;(2)Abstract the theory from the practical problems,from the theoretical deduction to the practical guidance.According to the basic ideas of "reality problem-theoretical abstraction-theoretical deduction-quantitative practice-quantitative analysis-policy advice",the urban contraction evolution system,evolution mechanism and its practical application are systematically analyzed.First of all,based on the connotation and essence of the city,the paper systematically combs and deconstructs its structure,function and environment,analyzes the ecosystem characteristics of the urban contraction and evolution system and summarizes the ecosystem characteristics of its growth and evolution,and puts forward the premise and hypothesis of this paper,which provides theoretical support for the discussion of the core mechanism of this paper.The city is a huge machine,which includes the dual attributes of man and nature,which is isolated from nature and connected with nature.At the same time,different from the traditional mechanical system,the city has typical life characteristics.In today's "complex emergence mechanism" has not been completely cracked,mechanical reduction methods and means can not effectively solve complex system problems.Urban contraction is the evolutionary behavior of the whole city,which must be studied based on the whole city level,in order to explore the potential law of urban contraction effectively and dig the secret behind it.Secondly,under the premise and assumption of urban contraction evolution,the evolution mechanism of urban contraction system is discussed,and the core law of its contraction evolution is analyzed.Mechanism is often complex,complex things can not be all inclusive,only grasp the key parts of complex things,can we achieve effective solution to the problem.For the system evolution and evolution mechanism,the related research is often discussed through complex system modeling,complex system simulation,social physics and other ways.However,these methods are all based on simulation,that is,setting the system structure and operating parameters of each part in advance to simulate the complex system.The complexity of application system is not to complicate the problem,but to use the level emergence and integrity of complex system,omit the details of huge problems,summarize the "effective" part of the system from the overall level,depict the overall law of the problem,and grasp the key core of the problem.By introducing the classic theories of urban life cycle and ecological theory,this paper constructs the periodic theoretical model of urban evolution,obtains the core mechanism of urban contraction evolution and the order parameters of system evolution,and puts forward two key parameters of this paper based on the connotation of the order parameters to complete the theoretical abstraction of practical problems.Thirdly,it explores how the theoretical conclusions can be applied to guide practice,that is,the application of the core mechanism of urban contraction evolution,and analyzes the key parameters of urban contraction evolution in major regions of China.Through the connotation of the key parameters,the quantitative model of the key parameters is constructed,and the key parameters of the city are calculated by choosing the main concentrated areas of the shrinking city as the research objects,and the status quo of these key parameters of the shrinking city is qualitatively described.According to the quantitative calculation results of the key parameters,the research samples are classified and the future evolution trend is predicted under certain conditions.The significance of scientific research is to be able to come back from reality and practice.Therefore,this paper follows the basic principle of theory guiding practice,quantifying the theoretical results and carrying out practical application is the key link of theory guiding practice.This chapter completes the key step of the transformation from theory to practice,providing conditions for the further sinking of theory to practice.Finally,the paper analyzes the key parameters of urban contraction evolution in time and space,and explores the countermeasures.The quantification of key parameters completes the initial transformation from theory to practice,but the quantitative results are difficult to be directly applied to practical problems.It is necessary to understand the spatial evolution law of the key parameters of shrinking cities,excavate the driving force behind the evolution and find out its mechanism,so as to put forward targeted policy recommendations.Therefore,this chapter analyzes the spatial correlation of key parameters of urban evolution in each region through Moran index,and then analyzes the influencing factors and mechanism of key parameters of urban evolution by using panel data measurement model.On the basis of the analysis results,this paper puts forward three Governance Countermeasures of coordination,innovation and guarantee based on the concept and system from the Six focal points,and then puts forward policy suggestions for the contraction and development of regional cities.This part completes the final link of theory guiding practice,obtains the road map of policy recommendations,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions of shrinking urban governance.In order to realize the people's long cherished wish for a better life and realize the sustainable development of China's economy and society,it is necessary to study the mechanism of urban contraction and shrink urban governance.This paper chooses to study the phenomenon of urban contraction,which has certain theoretical and practical significance. |
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