| According to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change(2007),agriculture is the second-largest source of greenhouse gases,accounting for 13.5%of global man-made emissions.The planting industry occupies the most important position in the whole of agriculture and is the foundation of the whole of agriculture.Crop production in China is faced with a series of problems,such as high input of production means,low yield and benefit,excessive utilization of resources,ecological degradation and poor living conditions in rural areas.In Shandong Province is the largest planting industry in our country,planting economic development is good,the extroverted degree is higher,in Shandong Province according to customs statistics,since 2001 in Shandong Province of foreign agricultural products import and export 18 consecutive years ranked first in our country,its steady development,on the one hand,in terms of planting industry in China has a strong demonstration significance and guiding value,on the other hand,for the improvement of people's living standards and the development of the national economy has important significance.According to the data in 2019,China's total carbon emission ranks first in the world,almost twice that of the second place,the United States.However,China certainly feeds one-fifth of the world's population with only 7%of the world's farmland,making a great contribution to the stable development of the world.However,with the rapid development of China's planting industry,it has also brought negative impacts to the environment.The excessive use of production materials such as fertilizers,pesticides and agricultural membranes has caused serious pollution to soil and water resources and increased the carbon emission of the planting industry.Because of the pressure of emission reduction from the international community and the actual situation of the development of the domestic planting industry,the research on low-carbon planting industry is an inevitable direction to follow the trend of The Times.The low-carbon performance of the plantation industry can well measure and evaluate the low-carbon development of the plantation industry,but how to measure the low-carbon performance level of the plantation industry?What are the factors affecting the low-carbon performance of the plantation industry?How to control cost reasonably when formulating emission reduction policy?How to conduct a scientific evaluation of emission reduction policies?Only the above questions can be answered to promote the low-carbon development of the plantation industry.Therefore,this article will comprehensively analyze and evaluate the low-carbon performance of the plantation industry,and build a policy system to reduce emissions for its low-carbon development.This will have a strong practical significance for the low-carbon development of the plantation industry.The main work of this paper is as follows:First,this article systematically sorts out the research status of low-carbon agriculture at home and abroad and summarizes and defines the concepts and theories involved in this article to ensure that the research theory has a solid foundation;Second,a descriptive analysis of the current status of planting industry development,production investment,and low-carbon agriculture in Shandong Province,and based on this,a scientific calculation of the carbon emissions and carbon sinks of the planting industry in Shandong Province,From the perspective of time and space,the development trend,structure,density and intensity change,and regional differences are analyzed.Then,based on the carbon emissions and carbon sink measurements of the plantation industry,the stochastic frontier analysis method was used to calculate the marginal cost of carbon emissions reduction of the plantation industry in Shandong Province.At the same time,the analysis of the spatial agglomeration characteristics of the carbon sinks of the plantation industry was carried out,thereby comprehensively grasping The time and space development laws and regional differences of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in Shandong Province.On the one hand,it points out the task breakdown direction for the construction of an emission reduction policy system and improves the cost module of the policy system construction.On the other hand,for the next step The research on the low-carbon performance of the plantation industry in Shandong Province has laid a solid foundation;Third,this part firstly defines the input variables and output variables of low-carbon performance of planting industry,and then constructs the DEA Malmquist model to measure the low-carbon performance level of planting industry in Shandong Province,and then analyzes and evaluates the low-carbon performance of planting industry from the perspective of time and space.And the low-carbon performance of planting industry is compared with the traditional performance of planting industry,which points out the direction for the later research;Fourth,to study the reasons for the differences in the low-carbon performance level of the planting industry in time and space,this section conducts a spatial effect study on the low-carbon performance of the planting industry in Shandong Province.First,the global autocorrelation test and the local autocorrelation test are used.The spatial correlation of low-carbon performance of the regional planting industry in Shandong Province is analyzed,and the spatial-temporal transition path of local spatial autocorrelation is characterized and analyzed.Then,the spatial panel data model was used to estimate the fixed-effect space lag model(SLM)and spatial doubling model(SEM).The economic,institutional,scale and technical factors were used to analyze the low-carbon performance of the plantation industry Space effect.Through the empirical evidence in this chapter,we have systematically grasped the spatial effects of various factors on the low-carbon performance of the plantation industry,making the construction of a policy system for low-carbon development and emission reduction in Shandong Province more scientific and reasonable;Fifth,in this part,pvar model is used to study the dynamic effect of low-carbon driving and constraint on low-carbon performance of planting industry in Shandong Province.Firstly,GMM parameter estimation was used to analyze the impact of low-carbon constraint target and low-carbon driving means on low-carbon performance of planting industry in the case of one lag period.Then,pulse function was used to analyze the development trend of the influence of low-carbon constraint target and low-carbon driving means on low-carbon performance of planting industry,and the low-carbon constraint target and low-carbon driving means were measured by variance decomposition The contribution of variables to low carbon performance of planting industry.The research in this part lays a solid theoretical and practical foundation for the final formation of emission reduction policy system;Sixthly,this section first makes simulation analysis on the existing scenario of low-carbon performance of planting industry,then sets the scenario of low-carbon policy and makes simulation analysis,at the same time,carries out decision-making evaluation analysis on low-carbon policy.Finally,based on the previous research conclusions,this paper systematically constructs the policy system of planting industry emission reduction in Shandong Province,and puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the low-carbon development of planting industry in Shandong Province. |
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