| At the Paris Climate Conference,China made a commitment to achieve a peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strive for an early peak.Electric power industry as the largest carbon emission sector in China,its low-carbon transformation is imperative.Controlling carbon emissions belongs to the field of solving environmental extermalities and needs the use of policy tools to cope with.However,at present,China’s laws and regulation system of carbon dioxide emission reduction still need to be improved.The policy mechanisms related to the low-carbon development of the power industry include:carbon emissions trading mechanism,renewable energy development policy and energy efficiency development policy.Under the background of electric power market reform,the impact and interaction effects of various low-carbon policies on the electric power industiy are not clear.Therefore,it is necessary to study the synergy of carbon emission reduction policies for electricity industry.From the micro and macro perspectives,this paper constructs the synergistic analysis models between electricity carbon emission reduction,renewable energy incentive mechanism and energy efficiency development policies,and simulates electricity carbon emissions under different policy combinations,and furthermore analyzes the synergistic effects of different policy combinations based on multi-criteria evaluation model.The main research contents are as follows.Firstly,analyze and clarify the types and characteristics of policy tools as well as the policy synergy connotation.Based on the definition and classification of policy tools from different scholars,this paper divides environmental policy tools into three types:command-control,market incentive and voluntary agreements.Combining with the Porter hypothesis,this paper analyzes the intermal mechanism of different types of environmental policies affecting enterprises’emission reduction behavior.Based on synergetics theoiy,define the policy synergy onnotation and assort policy synergy from the perspective of policy objectives achieving.Then the current situation and problems of environmental policy synergy in China’s electric power industry are summarized.Secondly,elaborate the relevant policies and mechanisms for low-carbon development of the electricity industry.Mainly analyze the implementation and institutional principles of common carbon emission reduction tools,renewable energy development policies and energy efficiency development policies at home and abroad,including carbon tax,carbon emission trading,FIT policy,FIP policy,RPS and TGC policy,energy efficiency standards and tradable white certificate mechanism.Based on the implementation analysis of various policy mechanisms,the policy design and suggestions for low-carbon development of China’s electric power are summarized.Thirdly,a policy synergy model of electricity carbon emission reduction and renewable energy development is constructed.Firstly,the power market equilibrium model under carbon emission trading policy is established,and the equilibrium states of fossil energy generators,renewable energy generators,power transmission and distribution operators and consumers are analyzed when achieving their profit maximization respectively.On this basis,two different renewable energy development policies are further introduced.The coupled analysis models of carbon emission trading with FIP and TGC policies are constructed respectively.Through the comparative analysis of three policy combination scenarios,the interaction mechanism between electric carbon emission reduction policy tools and renewable energy development policies is obtained.The empirical results show that in the face of carbon emission reduction goals and development goals of renewable energy,there is a good synergistic effect among carbon emission trading mechanism,FIP policy and TGC policy.If based on the existing subsidies and the cap value setting for green certificate price,FIP policy have a stronger promotion effect on the development of renewable energy then TGC policy;in addition,there are different equilibrium relations between green certificate price,carbon market price and electricity market price.Fourthly,a policy synergy analysis model for electric carbon emission reduction and energy efficiency development is constructed.Through the analysis of the main bodies of power energy efficiency market with the market equilibrium theory in microeconomics,the mechanism and key factors of the Tradable White Certificate mechanism on the electricity market and carbon market are obtained.Through the model analysis,it can be found that the Tradable White Certificate mechanism can reduce the electricity demand by improving the energy efficiency level of end-users,which will lead to the decline of fossil energy generation and the reduction of carbon emission of electricity industry.But at the same time,it will affect the price of electricity wholesale market and retail market,and the stricter the energy-saving target is,the more volatile the electricity market price will be caused.Fifthly,based on the macro-perspective of industrial development,an influencing factors decomposition model of electric power industry carbon emissions is constructed Based on the decomposition results,a system dynamics(SD)model is established to simulate the carbon emission situation of power industry under multiple policy systems.Firstly,the improved LMDI two-stage model is used to find the 10 key factors affecting the total carbon emissions of the power industry and calculate the promotion or inhibition degree of each factor.Then,based on the decomposed key factors,a system dynamics model describing the carbon emissions of the industry is constructed based on the whole industry chain including generation,transmission,distribution and utilization.Carbon emission reduction policy,renewable energy development policy and energy efficiency policy are combined into five different policy scenarios to simulate the emission reduction situation with the SD model.The model simulation results show that if no low-carbon development policy is implemented,the total carbon emissions of the electric power industry will continue to grow,and it will be difficult to achieve the peak in 2030.Among the policies,carbon emissions trading has the most significant effect on reducing carbon emissions of the power industry,while the reduction effect of energy efficiency policy is not obvious,so it can not be used as the main carbon reduction tool.Sixthly,considering that the implementation of multiple policies may have other impacts besides reducing carbon emissions,this paper establishes a multi-criteria assessment model to analyze the synergistic effects of different policy combinations.Firstly,11 secondary evaluation indicators are selected from five aspects including environment,energy,cost,economy and technology.Then a synergistic evaluation model of multiple policies for power carbon emission reduction is constructed by combining HFLTS-AHP and Fuzzy-VIKOR methods.Aimed at the policies involved in the previous parts,they are divided into eight portfolio schemes for empirical analysis.By rating the performances under different indicators,the comprehensive evaluation results are calculated.A sensitivity analysis is earied out for the key indicators weights to obtain the policy options for low-carbon development under different emphasis.Finally,combined with the analysis results of each chapter,the paper puts forward policy and mechanism suggestions to promote the low-carbon development of China’s electric power industry.Relevant suggestions are put forward from the aspects of carbon emission trading mechanism design,renewable energy development policy choice,energy efficiency policy choice and collaborative design of different policy tools. |
PDF Full Text Request