| Florida faces a substantial threat from sea level rise (SLR) over the next century because of its low and flat topography in addition to its populous coastlines. With only a one foot future water level rise, most of Florida's natural beaches will disappear; with a four-foot rise, millions of acres will be lost. Given that 80% of Florida residents live in coastal counties, local policymakers must begin acting now to prevent widespread losses due to SLR inundation. This study analyzes the relative differences between three SLR coastal policies using digital elevation models and county parcel datasets in a GIS environment. A coastal policy simulation prototype was developed to simulate armoring, armoring prohibition, and rolling easements using SLR estimates from 0.15 m to 1.35 m in 0.15 m steps in Key West, FL and Pinellas County, FL. This prototypes indicated the feasibility of the rolling easement policy and highlighted the need for a better rolling easement compensation estimation model. A negative exponential function of SLR inundation risk was proposed to calculate rolling easement compensation payments. The rolling easement model was applied on SLR scenarios ranging from 0.30 m to 2.1 m with 0.30 m steps. The calculation of easement payments to home owners is performed based on the percentage of people accepting an easement, a friction coefficient to control how quick the rolling easement payment will be reduced, and an overall monetary discount of property value. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the model parameters. Large uncertainties in home owners selecting to participate in the rolling easement program are addressed using Monte Carlo analysis. In this analysis, the model is run 100 times with different randomly selected properties each time the model is run. The results for Pinellas County, FL and Sarasota County, FL show that acceptance of a rolling easement policy is dependent on physical features such as topography. For example, compensation payments in low-lying and densely built Pinellas (... |
