Research On Trade Complementarity And Competition Between China And Central And Eastern European Countries

China and central and Eastern European countries established the "16 + 1" cooperation mechanism in 2012.Under the background of trade globalization,the "16 + 1" cooperation mechanism between China and central and Eastern European countries laid a good foundation for bilateral trade.As a trading partner with good trade relations,China and central and Eastern Europe have strong complementarity in trade commodities,and bilateral trade cooperation is increasingly close.In recent years,with the rise of trade protectionism and the rise of anti globalization forces,foreign trade between China and central and Eastern Europe is facing a unique new situation,and the international trade environment has changed greatly.From the perspective of central and Eastern European countries,Europe has always been the largest export market of central and Eastern European countries.However,since the debt crisis in Europe,major European economies have been facing serious economic recession,so they have to reduce the import scale from central and Eastern European countries.The external trade environment that central and Eastern Europe originally depended on has changed,and central and Eastern European countries have to focus on the Asian market,Looking for new export opportunities;from China’s perspective,China has also encountered very serious trade frictions in recent years,such as the Sino US trade war.These external resistance factors have hindered the development of China’s foreign trade,thus forcing China to find new trade partners to ensure that foreign trade will continue to maintain rapid growth.It is in this context that it provides an important opportunity for the two sides to further strengthen trade cooperation.From the perspective of trade structure and trade scale,this paper analyzes the current trade situation of China’s main trade commodities in central and Eastern European countries.This paper also analyzes the dominant comparative advantage and trade complementarity of China’s bilateral trade products in central and Eastern Europe by measuring the trade complementarity index.The results show that the scale of bilateral trade is expanding and the two sides have regarded each other’s market as an important export market.However,there are still many problems in bilateral trade: for example,the trade scale accounts for a small proportion of each other’s foreign trade;China maintains a long-term surplus with central and Eastern European countries and this surplus continues to expand;third,the non-tariff barriers of central and Eastern European countries hinder the further expansion of bilateral trade scale;fourth,the bilateral trade structure is too single,which affects the continuous expansion of trade scale 。 Then select the data of bilateral import and export trade,GDP,population and geographical distance between 2012 and 2019,establish a trade gravity model for regression analysis,to analyze the factors influencing the trade scale,and then calculate the bilateral trade potential,and finally analyze the trade potential.The results show that: through the calculation of comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index,we can conclude that the products with comparative advantage are mainly labor-intensive in China and resource intensive in central and Eastern European countries,so bilateral trade complementarity is strong,so bilateral trade can benefit both sides.Based on the gravity model,the data of GDP,population,geographical distance and currency exchange rate will have an important impact on bilateral trade.Then,according to the calculation results of trade gravitation model,we calculate the trade potential and draw the conclusion that bilateral trade potential is huge.Finally,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the development of bilateral trade.Through the study of bilateral trade cooperation,this paper analyzes the problems existing in bilateral trade,gives corresponding countermeasures,provides reference for the further expansion of bilateral trade scale,promotes bilateral trade cooperation,accelerates the improvement and implementation of "16 + 1" cooperation mechanism,and accelerates bilateral economic growth.