| Economic fluctuation is a topic of equal importance to economic growth.The economy has entered a new normal stage and has placed more emphasis on the stable development of the economy.After the global economic crisis in 2008,China's economic fluctuation intensified,the trend of "anti-globalization" was rampant,and international economic and trade relations were more complicated.On July 31,2018,the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting to put forward the "six stables",pointing out that the current external environment has undergone significant changes,and the economic operation is facing new problems and new challenges.We should "adhere to the steady progress and implement high-quality development requirements." At the same time,the improvement of export quality is an important part of the supply-side reform.The "13th Five-Year Plan" proposed some strategic goals "to take the supply-side structural reform as the main line,the economy to maintain medium-high-speed growth" and "to promote the transformation of foreign trade to high-quality and low-price,and to accelerate the construction of a trading power." The promotion of structural reform on the supply side is conducive to the improvement of export quality,which will affect economic fluctuation.In the process of improving export quality,risks arising from technological innovation,product upgrading and resource reconfiguration may cause greater economic fluctuation.What's more,as the export quality improves the product structure and improves the comparative advantage,it may be better able to resist external shocks and thus curb economic fluctuation.Therefore,studying the impact of export quality improvement on economic fluctuation will not only help prevent and resolve possible risks in the process of export quality upgrading,but also help to reduce economic fluctuation through high-quality development strategies.Stabilizing economic growth is an important goal pursued by the economics community.However,the existing research mainly focuses on the economic growth effect of export quality,but pays insufficient attention to its economic fluctuation effect,especially the explanation of micro-theoretical mechanism.In recent years,the research on the sources of economic fluctuation has been extended to the micro-enterprise because micro-enterprise fluctuation has a great impact on macro-economic fluctuation.More importantly,only from the level of micro-enterprise can we better find a precise conduction mechanism of the external shocks' impact on economic fluctuation.This dissertation attempts to study the sources of output fluctuation of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from a new perspective of export quality,clarify the micro-mechanism of export quality improvement's impact on output fluctuation,and enrich the literature on the impact of international trade on economic development.The author aims to answer the following questions: What are the characteristics and evolution trends of China's manufacturing enterprises' export quality and output fluctuation? Does the improvement in export quality affect output fluctuation? Does the increase of export quality make more risks and output fluctuation,or resist external shocks and reduce output fluctuation? What is the micro-mechanism of export quality improvement's impact on output fluctuation?First of all,in the part of theoretical mechanism,based on the basic setting of the quality heterogeneity model for consumers and the export quality set in the "New-New International Trade Theory",and drawn on the framework of theoretical analysis on fluctuation and export in G.Vannoorenberghe's(2012),the incomplete contract model set by Blanchard and Kremer(1997),the model of specialization of labor put forward by Costinot(2009)and the theory of ability,the author introduces export quality heterogeneity,establishes a mathematical model,and analyzes the export intensity effect and technical effect of export quality improvement's impact on output fluctuation.Besides,the author constructes a conceptual model to analyze the market effect,and explains the theoretical mechanism of export quality improvement through supply side diversification effect and demand side income effect on output fluctuation.Then,the 2000-2013 customs trade database,industrial enterprises database,and KSW method put forward by Khandelwal,et al.(2013)are used to evaluate the quality of export products from four dimensions—enterprises,products,destinations and years.Drawing lessons from dynamic OP decomposition method proposed by Melitz and Polare(2015),the author conductes the dual margins decomposition on the quality of export products.Meanwhile,the standard deviation method and the residual method are used to calculate the output fluctuation of the enterprise,and the output fluctuation is decomposed into export fluctuation(export sales fluctuation of output)and domestic fluctuation(domestic sales fluctuation of output).Finally,on the basis of the calculated value,the mediation effect model,the threshold effect model,the OLS regression model and the Heckman selection model are used to test the export intensity effect,technical effect and market effect in the theoretical mechanism.Since the total output fluctuation can be decomposed into export fluctuation and domestic fluctuation,and the impacts of export quality improvement on these two parts of fluctuation are different,so first we test its impacts on domestic and foreign fluctuation,and then test its impact on total output fluctuation.This will help people better understand and analyze the impact of export quality on total output fluctuation.After researching theories and demonstrations,the following main conclusions are drawn:First,the overall export quality of Chinese manufacturing enterprises experienced three stages of growth-decrease-growth from 2000 to 2013.After joining the WTO,it grew rapidly;after the financial crisis,it fell rapidly;in post-financial-crisis era,it gradually increased.At the first stage,the main reason for the growth was the upgrading of the continuous export products' quality.The main reasons for the consequences at the second stage were the decline in the quality of continuous export products and the exit of higher quality products due to the financial crisis.The main reasons for the third stage of growth were the upgrading of the quality of continuous export products and the entry of higher quality products,so the power of export quality upgrade was strengthened.For the industrial export quality,the export quality of most industries has not increased significantly,showing a turbulent trend while the export quality of high-tech industries has increased slightly,and increased rapidly after the financial crisis.For the regional export quality,the export quality of the Yangtze River Delta region was relatively high while the export quality of the Pearl River Delta region was low,and the export quality of the central and western regions was relatively low.For different types of enterprises,the export quality of processing trade enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises was greater than that of general trade enterprises and state-owned enterprises,and general trade enterprises were more affected by the financial crisis.Second,after the global economic crisis in 2008,the overall output fluctuation of Chinese manufacturing enterprises increased by 81.04%,and export fluctuation increased by 181.82%.Export fluctuation was much greater than output fluctuation.Moreover,external shocks from entering the WTO and the financial crisis have exacerbated overall output fluctuation.For industry output fluctuation,output fluctuation in the low-tech and high-tech industries was more intense.For regional output fluctuation,the export fluctuation in the eastern region was significantly greater than the total output fluctuation and domestic fluctuation.This characteristic was not obvious in the central and western regions,indicating that the region with greater trade intensity is of more risks.For different types of enterprises,the output fluctuation of general trading companies and non-state-owned enterprises was greater than that of processing trade enterprises and state-owned enterprises.Compared with the export fluctuation of capital-intensive enterprises,the export fluctuation of labor-intensive enterprises was significantly greater than domestic fluctuation and total output fluctuation.Third,through the establishment of the equilibrium model,it is found that for enterprises with internal and external sales markets and continuous exports,the improvement of export quality reduces export fluctuation and aggravates domestic fluctuation through the increase of export intensity.The negative correlation between domestic and international sales is the reason of this conclusion.For total output fluctuation,when the export strength is less than the threshold value,the improvement of export quality can reduce the total output fluctuation while if the export strength is greater than the threshold value,the result is opposite.Using the data of China's manufacturing enterprises from 2000 to 2013,the empirical conclusions are mostly consistent with the theoretical propositions.The improvement of export quality can reduce export fluctuation,but it does not play a role in reducing domestic fluctuation.When the export quality impacts the export fluctuation,domestic fluctuation and total output fluctuation,export intensity is a partial mediating effect.When the export intensity is less than the threshold value of 0.411,the improvement of the export quality can play a role in reducing the fluctuation of the total output.For different types of enterprises,improving export quality of processing trade enterprises can reduce export fluctuation,and improving export quality of capital and technology-intensive enterprises exacerbates domestic fluctuation and total output fluctuation.The intensive margin of export quality,that is,the continuous improvement of the quality of export products can play a role in restraining export fluctuation.The expansion margin,that is,the improvement of new and exited product quality,exacerbats export fluctuation and total output fluctuation.Fourth,using the theoretical framework of the incomplete contract model and the model of specialization of labor,introducing the theory of ability,and establishing the mathematical model,the author finds that the export quality reduces the output fluctuation through the technical effect.The technical effects mainly include the human capital factor and the intermediate product input diversification.The conclusions of the empirical test basically agree with the theoretical propositions.The driving factor for the export quality to suppress the output fluctuation of enterprises is mainly the human capital intensity in the technical effect.For different types of enterprises,the negative relationship between export quality and output fluctuation is significant,especially in light manufacturing enterprises,low-and medium-sized technology enterprises and general trading enterprises.The export fluctuation during the financial crisis is violent and different from the performance at the stable economic development stage.The author further empirically tests the impact of export quality on export fluctuation during the financial crisis,and finds that the higher the export quality of enterprises when the crisis is hit,the slighter the export fluctuation.This indicates that enterprises with higher export quality can resist external shocks to a certain extent,but in the high-tech industry,the higher the export quality of enterprises the greater the fluctuation of exports.Fifth,based on the "New-New International Trade Theory" and the theory of output fluctuation,a conceptual model is established to find that export quality impacts output fluctuation through market effects.Market effects include supply-side diversification effects and demand-side income effects.The former one means that the export market of enterprises with high product quality is more diversified,and the diversification of export markets can spread risks,thereby inhibiting output fluctuation.The latter one means that high-quality products are generally consumed by high-income groups in high-income countries.The income of these consumer groups is relatively stable,and the demand for high-quality products is relatively stable,thereby stabilizing the output of high-quality products.Enterprises exporting high-quality products influences the supply and demand,then the diversified supply and high-income groups' demand further influence output fluctuation.After the further empirical tests,it is found that for Chinese manufacturing companies,the market effect did not appear before the 2000-2006 financial crisis.However,during the 2006-2011 financial crisis,export quality reduced export fluctuation through market effects,which in turn reduced total output fluctuation.The market effect is a partial mediating effect,accounting for 50.2% of the total effect.This shows that supply and demand in the market are more sensitive to external shocks,so when faces with crisis impact,the market effect is more significant.The conclusions of this dissertation provide theoretical and empirical support for the strategy of "regulating structure and stabilizing growth" under the economic new normal,and following political implications can be used for reference:(1)Give full play to the role of export quality improvement to resist shocks and reduce output fluctuation;(2)Moderately adjust export-oriented strategies,transform trade development models from factor-driven to innovation-driven,and transform advantages from quantity to quality;(3)In recent years,China has shifted from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend",making full use of the new advantages of human capital,promoting the upgrading of export quality,and thus reducing output fluctuation;(4)Prevent and resolve the risks in the process of export quality upgrading.In particular,for high-tech industries,China shall promote high-quality development step by step,or not make quick efforts and benefit. |
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